Stocks May Head Lower Following Options Expiration
Michael Kramer | Oct 21, 2022 01:18AM ET
Stocks finished the day lower yesterday, with the S&P 500 dropping by 80 bps. The index rallied initially as the dollar weakened, but the dollar rallied, and a weak 5-year TIP Auction sent rates soaring in the afternoon. That sent stocks into reverse, turning a 1% gain into a loss.
Today is Opex, and all that gamma at 3,700 in the S&P 500 will vanish on the opening. That may result in stocks moving lower from the stronger dollar and higher rates. The rising wedge is broken, and even a 61.8% retracement of the move from last Thursday’s lows sends the index to around 3,600.
It was just last week, I was on the Charles Payne show , and I was talking about the 10-year rising to between 4.25% and 4.5%. Today the 10-yer closed at 4.23%; I still think it has some higher to go, with 4.3% now in reach.
Additionally, the TIP ETF is very close to breaking critical support. Once that support breaks, the TIP could drop to around $102, which would likely take the QQQ to a new low.
The Dollar index is forming a symmetrical triangle, and usually, these triangles lead to breakouts in the direction of the prior trend, which in this case is higher.
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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell yesterday to support around $207, which is where it stopped. That is the critical level, and should it give way, there is nothing to stop the TIP from falling to around $180.
Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) broke above the downtrend yesterday, and the RSI continues to rise. That is bullish, in my opinion. I know the company reports next week, which will have a big say in what happens. For now, $30 is resistance.
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) keeps dropping, and the Snap (NYSE:SNAP) results won’t help for now. I don’t know where the bottom is, and $114 is possible should $123 break.
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