Michael Lebowitz | Sep 21, 2021 07:00AM ET
Yesterday, stocks bounced hard off the lows reclaiming a chunk of earlier losses. As we will discuss, the 100-dma held firm as the stocks look to be trying to replay the March sell-off. This morning, futures are pointing sharply higher suggesting the bulls are not done just yet.
The benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls which have repeatedly saved the market after minor losses. Will they come to the rescue once again, or do we have to sweat out the 200dma (4105)? Answering the question is a little more complicated than it has been.
The Fed meets on Wednesday and will likely announce their plans to Taper QE in November. Given the Evergrande situation and its effect on domestic and global markets, they may delay announcing “taper,” or make it contingent on various factors. Also for consideration, they may well proceed with taper, despite risks to equity prices. Regardless, the Fed will play a big role in swaying investors’ moods.
Pre-market
As noted, the market solidly cracked below the 50-dma as the bulls failed to show. Such was a warning we discussed in “Investors Fail To Buy The Dip” this past weekend. To wit:
Get The News You WantRead market moving news with a personalized feed of stocks you care about.Get The App“We can attribute the weakness on Friday to ‘quadruple witching,’ where every type of option (stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures) all expired simultaneously.
However, history is also not on the market’s side, with the S&P 500 averaging a 0.4% decline for September, the worst of any month, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Friday, in particular, began a historically weak period for stocks as those September losses typically come in the back half of the month.
Also, the markets are a bit nervous about the Fed’s meeting next week with an announcement of “tapering” asset purchases expected.
With the market very oversold, a counter-trend bounce next week will not be a surprise. However, if the market fails to hold the 50-dma, the risk of a more substantial correction is likely.“
I have updated the chart below for Monday’s close. Note the similarity to the March period where the market closed well off its lows for the day. That bounce off the lows came with similar oversold conditions, and a follow through rally reclaimed the 50-dma.
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