Stocks Are Rising As Hopes For Stimulus Grow
Michael Kramer | Oct 12, 2020 08:22AM ET
Stocks are rising like they typically do on Miracle Monday, with the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) trading higher by about 50 bps. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures are taking out another layer of resistance, this time at 3,482. It really doesn’t leave any resistance until we get back to the upper 3,500’s.
Until the election, as long as Biden continues to hold a wide lead over Trump and stimulus talk continue to be entertained, the market is likely to continue to plow higher. The biggest risk for the market will not come until after the election. I continue to think that the election will be much tighter than the polls suggests and that a blue wave sweep is not the base case.
I will continue to roll out more data in the days ahead that supports the notion that Biden doesn’t have a runaway victory. I spent a good portion of late Sunday night, breaking down the polling data in states like PA, suggesting Biden’s led may be tenuous.
The dollar index is rebounding some today, and while I think the dollar will rise over the longer-term, the next three weeks may one where it either falls or moves sideways. I believe that the ECB intends to weaken the euro and will once it is given the opportunity.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is moving higher this morning and is breaking out this morning from this trading range around $116. The next big level of resistance, I think, is coming around $124.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is moving higher this morning with a push above $450, sending the stock on a path back to $475.
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Is the worst over for Altria (NYSE:MO) Maybe. This stock has been destroyed over the past few years. One sign is that the RSI is now beginning to trend higher; we can find out really soon too if it can break above $42.60, that would be a huge positive. It looks like it is getting close.
Somehow, Disney (NYSE:DIS) continues to hold the uptrend; I’m not sure how. The streaming business isn’t enough to hold up the rest of the business and support the valuation. The RSI trend is clearly lower, we can see what happens, but I still tend to think this one heading lower.
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