NYSE: Downtrend Is Over, New Uptrend Expected
Robert H Anderson | Apr 06, 2015 01:49AM ET
DOWNTREND LOOKS COMPLETE AND NOW WE SHOULD START A NEW UPTREND
My downtrend ended last Thursday (04/02/15) and I was "very" disappointed because I thought it would end like an "angry bear", but instead it ended like a shy lamb.
It had a lot to do with the Easter holiday and the fact that many of the traders were heading out early for their Spring break.
But I have learned to "trust" my charts and they said we completed an A/B/C downtrend with a total of 9 sub waves. To me that spells an Elliott Wave direction change from down to up.
NYSE Composite
If you have been following my posts, you might remember that I talked about waves that have been forming since the all time top of S&P500 2119. Those waves can also be called downtrends and uptrends and they have been lasting about 2 weeks for each one to complete. So far we have completed three of them and we should start wave-4 up tomorrow - Monday (04/06).
Each of these waves have an A/B/C bear market pattern within them.The last up wave took about 2 weeks to complete and consisted of 7 sub waves, that took us up to about 2114. That was very close to our 2119 top and that was also very bearish, because it did not break the 2119 top. Then it "reversed" and went down to our last Thursday close of 2066. That was my wave-3 bottom.
I expect this new wave-4 up to go up and challenge the S&P 500 top of 2119 again and maybe equal it or even break it. If it does not do either one, then that would be "very" bearish and look out for wave-5 down. I also believe we will see 9 of these waves before we get another big uptrend.
I have included a NYSE Daily chart that shows you the wave pattern of 3 waves and at the bottom of the chart it breaks down each wave, to show you the A/B/C counts within the waves. Notice that the down waves have 9 total sub waves of 3x3x3 and the up wave-2 had a total sub wave count of 7 with a 3x1x3 count. All nice bear market A/B/Cs.
Who says the stock market is totally random and makes no sense. To the contrary the charts show you that it has "sequence and order". The analyst's challenge is to discover what the market is trying to tell us and more importantly, "what does the market want to do next".
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