Stay EUR/USD Long For 1.1750
MyFXspot research | Sep 17, 2018 12:33PM ET
The EUR/USD continues to trade above 1.1600, but the full break through the 1.1700 handle has proved difficult so far, with U.S. data on Friday also offering investors the opportunity to take some profit after the post-ECB rally.
However, there is still considerable uncertainty in the current scenario with the U.S.-Chinese trade row about to escalate. Emerging-markets jitters have not been solved by the rate hikes in Turkey and Russia last week. Admittedly, an overall risk picture of this type does not call for heavy directional trading right now, although it probably favors higher implied volatilities as we move towards the end of the year. The weekly agenda is also unlikely to alter the ongoing market mood. The most relevant data releases will not occur until Friday, with the Eurozone preliminary PMI surveys for September, which are expected to show another modest fall in both the manufacturing and the service components, although probably not enough to represent a significant drag for the EUR.
h3 MyFXspot.com tradesEUR/USD/h3
Trading strategy: Long
Open: 1.1550
Target: 1.1750
Stop-loss: 1.1605 (raised from 1.1450)
Recommended size: 2.00 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: On Friday EUR/USD registered the biggest one-day fall of September so far, putting bulls under severe pressure. The 10-DMA, currently at 1.1616, has stemmed losses (just above our raised stop level) and we see a recovery today. We remain long.
GBP/USD
Trading strategy: Buy
Open: 1.3060
Target: -
Stop-loss: 1.2960
Recommended size: 1.50 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: Bullish trend remains intact. The pair stays above 7-day exponential moving average, that is positively aligned. We keep our buy-on-dips strategy with order raised to 1.3060.
USD/JPY
Trading strategy: Short
Open: 111.30
Target: 109.30
Stop-loss: 112.30
Recommended size: 1.67 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
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Short analysis: Thursday's eleventh biggest one-day gain of 2018 closed above the 111.88 Fibonacci level, a 61.8% retrace of the 113.18 to 109.78 (July to August) fall. This puts our short trade under pressure. We need a close below 111.76 first.
USD/CAD
Trading strategy: Sell
Open: 1.3065
Target: -
Stop-loss: 1.3200
Recommended size: 1.44 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: USD/CAD holds near 100-day MA. Our trading strategy is to sell on upticks with order at 1.3065. If the order is meet we see a scope for stronger fall with initial support level at 1.2897, the lower 21-d Bolli and then 200-day MA at 1.2861.
AUD/USD
Trading strategy: Await signal
Open: -
Target: -
Stop-loss: -
Recommended size: -
Short analysis: Rally off 2018's low stalls short of 0.7230/50 resistance zone. The 21-DMA exerts bear influence. Monthly RSI is biased down and daily is no longer oversold. Bear sentiment remains but consolidation is likely for now. We will stand aside until the consolidation is complete.
EUR/GBP
Trading strategy: Await signal
Open: -
Target: -
Stop-loss: -
Recommended size: -
Short analysis: 14-day momentum is getting increasingly bearish, but flat lining stochs in neutral territory and widening Bollinger bands point to a period of cloud base restraint. Flat for now awaiting stronger signals.
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