SPY Trends And Influencers: November 7, 2015
Dragonfly Capital | Nov 08, 2015 12:58AM ET
Elsewhere looked for gold (N:GLD) to move lower, while crude oil (N:USO) consolidated with an upward bias. The US dollar index (N:UUP) was biased to the upside in consolidation, while US Treasuries (N:TLT) looked to mark time sideways. The Shanghai Composite (N:ASHR) looked to continue consolidation around 3400 with an upward bias, while Emerging Markets (N:EEM) were biased to the downside.
Volatility (N:VXX) looked to remain subdued, keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETFs N:SPY, N:IWM and O:QQQ. Their charts were mixed though. The QQQ remained the strongest and within a day’s move to new all-time highs, while the SPY seemed extended and might need to consolidate or pullback first. The IWM continued to lag and is mired in consolidation.
The week played out with gold continuing the trend lower until it plummeted Friday, while crude oil did push higher but failed quickly, ending the week lower. The US dollar started moving higher before a rocket launch to end the week, while Treasuries fell out of consolidation and moved lower. The Shanghai Composite muddled along sideways until breaking the range to the upside late in the week, while Emerging Markets met some resistance and pulled back.
Volatility moved in a tight range all week, staying below its moving averages. The Equity Index ETFs started the week higher, with the SPY and the QQQ then consolidating and pulling back slightly, while the IWM took over the lead moving higher again Friday. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.
SPY Daily
The SPY started the week with a break above the consolidation that ended the prior week. It made a 3 and 1/2 month high Tuesday before starting another pullback. The Dark Cloud Cover Wednesday signaled the reversal and it followed through lower Thursday. Friday printed a Hammer though, suggesting the pullback may just be a bull flag, absorbing the recent move before heading higher.
The RSI on the daily chart is firmly in the bullish zone, running sideways along at the limit of the overbought level. The MACD though is turning back towards the signal line. The shorter SMAs, the 20 and 50 day, have already turned higher following the Bollinger Band® channel higher.
On the weekly chart, the price is back to the top of the prior consolidation box as it trends higher. The RSI on this timeframe is rising and approaching the bullish zone, with the MACD crossed up and rising. Both support more upward price action. This longer timeframe now looks at a Positive RSI Reversal targeting 214.26. There is resistance at 210.25 and 211 followed by 212.50 and 213.78. Support lower comes at 209 and 208.40 followed by 206.40 and 204.40. Continued Uptrend.
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SPY Weekly
Heading into next week, the equity indexes look strong and ready to challenge the all-time highs. Elsewhere look for gold to continue lower while crude oil moves lower in its consolidation. The US dollar index is breaking to the upside, while US Treasuries continue lower. The Shanghai Composite also looks to continue higher, while Emerging Markets consolidate under resistance.
Volatility looks to remain subdued, keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETFs SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their individual charts show some consolidation in the SPY and QQQ short term as the IWM takes the lead, but all look strong on the weekly timeframe. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
Disclaimer: The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog. Please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
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