SPX, Gold Technicals
Tim Ord | Dec 18, 2014 01:48PM ET
- Monitoring purposes S&P 500: Closed short SPX on 12/10/14 at 2026.14= gain 2.37%. Short S&P 500 12/5/14 at 2075.37.
- Monitoring purposes Gold: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
- Long-Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Timers Digest reported the Ord Oracle number 9 in performance for one year updated December 17.
The SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY) rallied strongly today. The up volume/Advancing with 9 period moving average and Down volume/Declining issues with 9 period moving average did not cross along with bottom window indicator and if the market rallies again tomorrow most likely will turn these indicators up. Also the McClellan Oscillator closed at -97 and still below “0” and if market continues higher will also turn this indicator bullish. Back at the October decline on October 8 a “one day wonder” advance that lasted one day and turned down next day and we are seeing if today’s rally is another “one day wonder”. The SPY does have resistance at the 12/12 high near 204 and a possible target for next high. There are two open gaps; one at 191 and another at 187 and possible targets. We don’t think this rally will continue (see page two).
The bottom window in the chart above is the percent of NYSE stocks above their 150 day moving average, which goes back to 2010. When the percent of stocks above their 150 day moving average fall below 40% (current reading 39.71%) than the next rally a lot of the time doesn’t follow through and can test or brake to new lows on the next decline. There where eight previous times the percent of stocks above 150 day moving average that fell below 40%, two went on to new highs (25%) and the rest either tested or broke to new lows. When market rallies strongly on news (FOMC meeting today) than rally can be suspect (remember buy on news and sell on fact). There is a bullish bias during option expiration week which is this week, but it looks like a bottom in the market is incomplete. Closed short S&P 500 at 2026.14 for a gain of 2.37%; short on 12/5/14 at 2075.37.
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The top window is the Bullish percent index for the Gold Miners index. Yesterday’s close on the Bullish Percent index came in at “0”, meaning that no point and figure buy signals where present in the stocks Since mid November the Bullish Percent index has stayed at 6.67% which means of the stock on in the Gold Miners index. Next window down is Market Vectors Gold Miners (ARCA:GDX). One would like to see GDX to close above its previous lows near 20.24 as that would create a bullish “Shakeout” and give a target back to the previous highs near 28. So far GDX is way below 20.24. Right now there is formable resistance near 20.24 and so we will wait and watch. Next window down is the GDX/GLD ratio. It bullish for both gold and gold stocks if the Gold stocks are out performing gold and that happens when this ratio is rising. This ratio did turn up today and is a positive short term sign, but again does have resistance near 20.24 Bottom window is GLD the ETF for Gold. GLD is back at the support area near 115 and so far appears to be holding. Last Thursday’s report, we should a longer term bullish picture setup for gold stocks. The short term picture at best is neutral. This market may be in the early stages of making a long term bottom but more time is needed to complete the bottoming process.
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