Speculators Reduce US Dollar Bets For Second Week
Zachary Storella | Jun 28, 2014 02:38PM ET
The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators slightly reduced their US dollar bullish bets for second consecutive week in the most recent data through June 24th.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $11.34 billion as of Tuesday June 24th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$0.85 billion from the $12.19 billion total long position that was registered on June 17th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The aggregate US dollar position has been on the bullish side for a seventh consecutive week after turning bullish on May 13th.
Overall changes on the week for the major currencies showed that large speculators bet in favor of the euro, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar while there were weekly decreases for the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the Mexican peso.
Individual Currency Standings:
Notable changes on the week:
- Euro positions slightly rebounded following six straight weeks of declines that brought the euro to the lowest overall level since May 2013
- British pound sterling positions fell slightly after the previous week saw net bullish positions climb to the highest level of the year
- Japanese yen short positions edged higher as speculative positions have been in a range between approximately -60,000 and -80,000 contracts over the past few months
- Swiss franc positions fell back to an overall bearish position with a weekly change of -8,892 contracts
- Canadian dollar positions saw the largest boost of the week of the major currencies and rose to their best level since October 2013 as positions saw a weekly net change of +16,213 contracts
- Australian dollar net positions rebounded last week and brought overall bullish positions to their highest level since April 2013
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* All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro. Please see charts and data below.
h3 Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price /h3EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 05/20/2014 | 268199 | 75013 | 84233 | -9220 | -7045 |
| 05/27/2014 | 274051 | 70753 | 87386 | -16633 | -7413 |
| 06/03/2014 | 280747 | 57109 | 90134 | -33025 | -16392 |
| 06/10/2014 | 331636 | 43739 | 100924 | -57185 | -24160 |
| 06/17/2014 | 285489 | 51405 | 113240 | -61835 | -4650 |
| 06/24/2014 | 291244 | 55062 | 112565 | -57503 | 4332 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 05/20/2014 | 237637 | 80009 | 46919 | 33090 | 1335 |
| 05/27/2014 | 238440 | 78438 | 43134 | 35304 | 2214 |
| 06/03/2014 | 239604 | 79476 | 44502 | 34974 | -330 |
| 06/10/2014 | 271602 | 85202 | 49360 | 35842 | 868 |
| 06/17/2014 | 250231 | 100434 | 47838 | 52596 | 16754 |
| 06/24/2014 | 254369 | 98098 | 48347 | 49751 | -2845 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 05/20/2014 | 164819 | 18681 | 72468 | -53787 | 10920 |
| 05/27/2014 | 162820 | 16999 | 76035 | -59036 | -5249 |
| 06/03/2014 | 171804 | 12578 | 86796 | -74218 | -15182 |
| 06/10/2014 | 201094 | 11893 | 94055 | -82162 | -7944 |
| 06/17/2014 | 153007 | 17832 | 85870 | -68038 | 14124 |
| 06/24/2014 | 148257 | 10325 | 81548 | -71223 | -3185 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 05/20/2014 | 48803 | 17387 | 12368 | 5019 | -1787 |
| 05/27/2014 | 48284 | 11559 | 15431 | -3872 | -8891 |
| 06/03/2014 | 48936 | 11907 | 13919 | -2012 | 1860 |
| 06/10/2014 | 52445 | 9615 | 12645 | -3030 | -1018 |
| 06/17/2014 | 32259 | 15296 | 11776 | 3520 | 6550 |
| 06/24/2014 | 33599 | 9069 | 14441 | -5372 | -8892 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 05/20/2014 | 121268 | 26500 | 53034 | -26534 | -497 |
| 05/27/2014 | 129989 | 32581 | 54391 | -21810 | 4724 |
| 06/03/2014 | 130275 | 32519 | 55250 | -22731 | -921 |
| 06/10/2014 | 125832 | 30303 | 54411 | -24108 | -1377 |
| 06/17/2014 | 132209 | 34582 | 56115 | -21533 | 2575 |
| 06/24/2014 | 103193 | 40595 | 45915 | -5320 | 16213 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 05/20/2014 | 107613 | 50130 | 30668 | 19462 | 2335 |
| 05/27/2014 | 109139 | 52071 | 36223 | 15848 | -3614 |
| 06/03/2014 | 110911 | 56811 | 35284 | 21527 | 5679 |
| 06/10/2014 | 128984 | 62141 | 33894 | 28247 | 6720 |
| 06/17/2014 | 99400 | 61078 | 34049 | 27029 | -1218 |
| 06/24/2014 | 101998 | 65612 | 32149 | 33463 | 6434 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 05/20/2014 | 30556 | 22486 | 4892 | 17594 | -1746 |
| 05/27/2014 | 30649 | 22034 | 4090 | 17944 | 350 |
| 06/03/2014 | 30066 | 22400 | 4869 | 17531 | -413 |
| 06/10/2014 | 32946 | 20401 | 3546 | 16855 | -676 |
| 06/17/2014 | 28467 | 21671 | 17938 | 3733 | -13122 |
| 06/24/2014 | 31415 | 24855 | 18703 | 6152 | 2419 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Long Specs | Short Specs | Large Specs Net | Weekly Change |
| 05/20/2014 | 154795 | 92730 | 15464 | 77266 | 8644 |
| 05/27/2014 | 157626 | 101808 | 18507 | 83301 | 6035 |
| 06/03/2014 | 162647 | 105666 | 19650 | 86016 | 2715 |
| 06/10/2014 | 200202 | 106566 | 16363 | 90203 | 4187 |
| 06/17/2014 | 135017 | 91227 | 22152 | 69075 | -21128 |
| 06/24/2014 | 128333 | 84943 | 15974 | 68969 | -106 |
Disclaimer: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
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