Speculators Rebooted USD Bullish Bets
Zachary Storella | Mar 10, 2019 01:52AM ET
Large currency speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. The latest COT data is now up to date after delays in previous weeks due to the government shutdown.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 33,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday, March 5th. This was a weekly gain of 1,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,913 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position tumbling by -6,925 contracts to a weekly total of 41,672 contracts compared to the gross bearish position total of 7,958 contracts which saw a lowering by -8,726 contracts for the week.
The net speculative position had fallen in five out of the previous six weeks before this week's rebound. The overall standing is back to the highest level in seven weeks and has remained above the +30,000 net contract level for thirty-one consecutive weeks.
h3 Individual Currencies Data this week:/h3In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators' category this week.
Japanese yen bets fell this week by over -11,000 contracts and dropped for a third straight week. Yen bets had gained previously for eight weeks in a row through February 12th before cooling off. The current standing for yen positions is now at the most bearish since January 8th
Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (1,801 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (4,334 contracts), Swiss franc (1,245 contracts), New Zealand dollar (507 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-3,529 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-5,711 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-11,652 contracts), Canadian dollar (-1,267 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-4,998 contracts).
See the table and individual currency charts below.
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EuroFX:
The Euro large speculator standing this week was a net position of -78,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,455 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -34,929 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly advance of 4,334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,263 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators was a net position of -51,306 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly lowering of -11,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,654 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,104 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,349 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators resulted in a net position of -40,444 contracts this week. This was a decrease of -1,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,177 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures was a net position of -40,741 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,743 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing recorded a net position of 1,421 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly advance of 507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 914 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators was a net position of 88,418 contracts this week. This was a weekly decrease of -3,529 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,947 net contracts.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
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