Speculators Add To USD Index And Japanese Yen Bullish Bets
Zachary Storella | Sep 15, 2019 02:06AM ET
US Dollar Index Speculator Positions
Large currency speculators continued to raise their net bullish positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week while speculators also boosted their Japanese yen positions, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 32,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 10th. This was a weekly gain of 296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,736 net contracts.
This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) dropping by -4,927 contracts (to a weekly total of 49,483 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a decrease by -5,223 contracts on the week (to a total of 17,451 contracts).
US Dollar Index bullish bets edged higher for a third straight week and have now risen in nine out of the past eleven weeks. This week’s gain brings the USD Index position to the most bullish level in twenty-six weeks dating back to the middle of March.
Individual Currencies Data this week:
In the all major currency contracts data, the currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (296 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (4,909 contracts), Swiss franc (2,947 contracts), Canadian dollar (6,174 contracts), Australian dollar (6,304 contracts), New Zealand dollar (886 contracts) and the Mexican peso (3,846 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-706 weekly change in contracts) and the British pound sterling (-7,274 contracts).
Notables for the week:
Japanese yen bullish bets rose this week after a down week and are now higher for the seventh time in the past eight weeks. Sentiment for the JPY has turned for the positive after reaching the low of the year on April 30th at a total of -99,599 net contracts. Since that low, positions have improved by a total of +132,190 contracts and turned bullish on August 6th.
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Euro speculators added to the existing bearish positions for a third straight week this week. The euro position is now at the most bearish level in the past six weeks but it is not all bad news as the bearish position is only half of what it was in late May (-101,102 net contracts).
British pound sterling positions went more bearish this week after seeing improvements (less bearish) in the previous four weeks. This week’s net level (-92,233 contracts) remains close to the cycle’s bearish high (-102,702 net contracts) that was reached on August 6th and keeps the pound sterling as easily the most bearish (among speculators) of the major currencies.
Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range
See the table and individual currency charts below.
Table of Large Speculator Levels And Weekly Changes:
This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
The euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,136 net contracts.
British Pound Sterling:
The large British pound sterling speculator level totaled a net position of -92,233 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly fall of -7,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,959 net contracts.
Japanese Yen:
Large Japanese yen speculators totaled a net position of 32,591 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly rise of 4,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,682 net contracts.
Swiss Franc:
The Swiss franc speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,892 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,839 net contracts.
Canadian Dollar:
Canadian dollar speculators reached a net position of 11,523 contracts this week. This was a increase of 6,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,349 net contracts.
Australian Dollar:
The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures was a net position of -53,014 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,318 net contracts.
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of -29,790 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly gain of 886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,676 net contracts.
Mexican Peso:
Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 95,637 contracts this week. This was a weekly rise of 3,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,791 net contracts.
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