S&P 500: Options Expiration Week Could Provide a Buying Opportunity
Tim Ord | Aug 16, 2023 09:56AM ET
SPY has two open gaps: one near 444 (formed on 7/12) and one near 454 (formed on 8/2) (shaded in light pink). SPY is testing the 444 gaps on relative light volume, suggesting support. Last Friday’s (8/4) close produced a 1.79 TRIN and -414 Tick, which is a bullish combination that suggests a low in the market is near.
On August 9, the TRIN closed at 1.17 and ticked at -208, and today, the TRIN closed at 1.25 and ticks at -294, an additional bullish combination that adds to the bullish setup. The second window up from the bottom is the VIX, which usually trades opposite of the SPY.
Over the last week, the SPY and the VIX moved lower, a bullish short-term divergence. I could see a “back and forth” for a couple of days before the 454 SPY gap level may be tested. Options expiration week is this week, which has a bullish bias—long SPX on 8/9/23 at 4467.71.
The bottom window is the SPY, and the next higher window is the 3-day SPY/VIX ratio average. We boxed in the times when a divergence was present. Currently, we have the SPY making a higher low than early July and the SPY/VIX ratio making a lower low, suggesting a lower SPY is possible in the coming weeks if the SPY does bounce (we think it will).
This week is options expiration week, which usually has a bullish bias, and a bounce is possible. However, we could see the pullback resume next week because of the negative divergence in the SPY/VIX ratio.
- S&P 500 Monitoring purposes: Long SPX 8/9/23 at 4467.71.
- Long SPX on 2/6/23 at 4110.98; Sold 6/16/23 at 4409.59 = gain of 7.26%. Gain since 12/20/22=17.68%
- Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX (NYSE:GDX) on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
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