S&P 500 Near Key Resistance as Bulls Eye Breakout from Tight Trading Range
Declan Fallon | Apr 30, 2025 12:22AM ET
There isn't a whole lot to add from what was said over the weekend. Intraday daily ranges have been tightening as markets move further away from April swing lows, and get closer to resistance defined by March lows.
Technicals have returned to bullish net technicals for the Russell 2000 (IWM) despite an underperformance relative to peer indices and a return to more normal trading volumes. A test of the 50-day MA still looks the preferred action for the coming days, although short-term stochastics are overbought, so it may ease back before making a final push to the 50-day MA.
The S&P 500 is trading bang on resistance and hasn't reversed as it I thought it might have by now. The move to resistance has acted more bullish than I expected with the 50-day MA just above. A kick on to the 50-day MA would likely trigger a wave of short covering and return technicals to a net bullish state.
The Nasdaq will likely be the first index to test its 50-day MA, although it hasn't yet returned to a net bullish state. Unlike the S&P 500, it's edged just above the March swing low, but the outcome for both of these indices is likely to be similar.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached a decision point. If we have a long-term swing low in place, then I would expect these indices to push higher over the next few days, even if there is a modest loss. Going on what has passed the last few weeks, and with the next round of Trump decision tariffs a few weeks away, I think markets are going to push higher.
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