S&P 500 Lags Long-Term While Tech Stocks Outperform
Brian Gilmartin | Apr 04, 2024 02:16AM ET
This S&P 500 annual return table shows the annual returns for the benchmark for various periods going back to 1/1/2000.
From 1/1/2000 through 3/31/24, the annual return for the S&P 500 is just 7.40%, the only return that looks reasonable the last 23 years.
h2 Looking at the S&P 500 Annual Return Data by Decade:/h2- 2000 to 2009: 1.25% per year
- 2010 to 2019: 13.55% per year
- 2020 to 3/31/24: 13.89% per year
- 2000 to 2009: -12.67%
- 2010 to 2020: +20.30%
- 2020 to 3/31/24: +19.95%
Here’s an interesting data point: 01/01/2000 through 3/31/24 (QQQ): +4.41% (lower than the S&P 500’s return for the same period).
h2 Bond Annual Returns: /h2High-yield credit has done well the last year in terms of absolute returns.
Note the 3-year returns for just about every bond sub-asset class on the spreadsheet. 5-year isn’t much better either.
Updating the spreadsheets after the close tonight, (4/3/24), I caught Rick Santelli on CNBC’s Fast Money. Rick is still looking for higher interest rates and judging by some of the comments out of the Sohn Conference today on deficits and gold, maybe that’s the right bet.
Take a look at the 10-year return on the TLT, just 1% (per year).
Maybe the buy signal will be when the 10-year returns all turn negative.
h2 Style-Box Update:
Get The News You Want
Small and mid-cap had a decent 2021 and 2022 (far right) but large-cap and growth re-asserted themselves last year and in Q1 ’24.
Small and mids had a strong Q4 ’23, but look at mid-cap growth in Q1 ’24. Not sure what drove that.
The annual returns for all the style boxes (bottom rows) are not bullish. Maybe the 3-year returns for small and mid, but that’s about it – they are still single digits.
h2 Conclusion: /h2Make of this what you will. I update the numbers just for my own edification. The one bullish metric for annual returns is the 23-year return on the Q’s vs the S&P 500. That surprised me (this was the first time I’d run the QQQ data.)
None of this is advice or an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing can involve loss of principal even over the short-term. Readers should gauge their own comfort with portfolio volatility and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
Thanks for reading.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.