S&P 500: How to Avoid Falling for the Market’s Tricks
Jani Ziedins | May 02, 2023 02:55AM ET
The S&P 500 spent Monday dancing around breakeven as traders get used to these new highs. As is often the case, the big gains came early and fast, meaning anyone waiting for last week’s confirmation is left with little more than crumbs.
Luckily, readers of this blog were ready for Thursday’s big pop. As I wrote last week:
The market loves to convince us we are wrong moments before proving us right. As paradoxical as it seems, [last] Tuesday’s bloodbath could actually turn out to be very bullish if the market bounces over the next few days. That’s because this reflexive selling is purging the last of the dead weight and clearing the way for the next leg higher.
Well, wouldn’t you know it? Last Tuesday’s bloodbath was, in fact, a false flag that cleared the way for these higher prices.
As for what comes next, even though the market seemed stalled on Monday, it still has upside remaining, and I expect it to break above 4,200 over the next few days or weeks.
Unfortunately, riding this echo won’t be anywhere near as easy, quick, or profitable as catching last week’s 120-point rebound across two sessions.
But that’s the way this goes. The early bird gets the worm, which means making the hard trade when it feels certain to fail. Buy when we don’t want to buy and sell when we don’t want to sell.
Now is the time to start proactively protecting last week’s profits by lifting stops and even taking partial profits. We don’t need to harvest a lot, but it is amazing how refreshing it feels to lock in some profits and put our minds at ease.
A little security is all we need to ride through the inevitable chop as we continue challenging 4,200 resistance over the next few days and weeks.
The price action looks good, and 4,200 is still very much on the table, but this is the wrong time to get greedy and cocky. Anyone doubling down here is exposing themselves to a routine step back on our way higher.
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