S&P 500, Gold And Miners: 12_12_18
Tim Ord | Dec 12, 2018 11:19AM ET
- SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88.
- Monitoring purposes Gold: sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX (NYSE:GDX) at 18.72 on 8/17/18
- Long-term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78
The above chart is from @NautilusCap. It’s a seasonally chart for the month of December going back 91 years. The low for December according to this Seasonality chart is expected on the 15th which is Saturday. The FOMC meeting is December 18 and 19, Next Tuesday and Wednesday. Its appears the market is setting at a low but may not come off this low until the FOMC meetings. Just Food for thought. Putting it another way if market is near this level going into the FOMC meeting, than the catalysis for the rally could be the FOMC meeting. Follow us on twitter. @OrdOracle Free 30 day trail available.
The 3 day TRIN reached over 1.75 last Friday and a bullish sign. The last time the “3 day Trin” reached near 1.75 came at the February low. Today the Tick closed at -342 and yesterday the Trin closed at 1.34 which is a bullish combination and shows panic is present and market bottoms on panic. As page one pointed out if the markets sets here for the next couple of days it may wait until the FOMC meet as a catalysis for the next rally to start. Whether rally starts now or at FOMC meeting, the sentiment probabilities point bullish. From four weeks ago “Since 1950 the change from October low through year-end average=10.7% gain (with no losses) during mid term elections years (@theonedave). The 10.7% average from the October low would give a target near 289 on the SPY (NYSE:SPY) (2890 SPX).” Follow us on twitter. @OrdOracle
We have a longer term cycle low due early Next year and it starting to look like it could come in January (not far away). We shown the chart in the past and have updated to yesterday’s close. It worth keeping an eye on this chart as it depicts a bullish larger scenario. The above chart is the monthly Silver/Gold ratio going back to late 1999. longer term bullish bottoms have formed (both for Gold and Gold stocks) when the Silver/Gold ratio dropped below .013 (current reading is below .012). The Silver/Gold ratio has been generally below .013 nearly one year and in our view suggests a lasting rally in gold and stock stocks is forthcoming. We sold our long GDX position (11/27/18) at 18.88 for a .075% gain; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18. We will wait for the next bullish setup. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord.
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