S&P 500 E-Mini Breaks Out Above All-Time High
Al Brooks | Mar 04, 2024 08:07AM ET
The monthly chart formed an S&P 500 Emini breakout above the prior all-time high. The bulls will need to create a follow-through bull bar in March to confirm the breakout even if it is just a bull doji. The bears will need a strong sell signal bar or a micro double top before traders will be willing to sell more aggressively.
h2 S&P 500 Emini Futures- The February monthly Emini candlestick was another consecutive big bull bar closing above the all-time high.
- Last month, we said that the odds slightly favor February to trade at least a little higher. However, the rally has also lasted a long time and is slightly climactic and a minor pullback can begin within a few months before the market resumes higher.
- The bulls want a breakout above the all-time high and got it in February.
- They will need to create a follow-through bull bar in March to confirm the breakout even if it is just a bull doji.
- If the market trades lower, they want it to be sideways with overlapping candlesticks.
- The bears see the current rally as a retest of the January 2022 all-time high and want a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal.
- They also see a large wedge pattern (Dec 2, July 27, and Mar 1).
- Because of the strong rally in the last 4 months, they will need a strong sell signal bar or a micro double top before traders would be willing to sell more aggressively. So far, there is no strong signal bar yet.
- Since February closed near its high, it is a buy signal bar for March.
- For now, odds slightly favor March to trade at least a little higher.
- The market remains Always In Long and the bull trend remains intact (higher highs, higher lows).
- The rally has lasted a long time and is slightly climactic. Traders are looking for signs of a pullback. There are none yet.
- Until the bears can create a strong sell signal bar, odds continue to favor the market to trade sideways to up.
- This week’s Emini candlestick was a bull bar closing near its high.
- Last week, we said that while the market continues to be Always In Long, the rally has lasted a long time and is slightly climactic. Traders will see if we start to get more selling pressure or will the bulls continue to create follow-through buying.
- This week traded sideways to down earlier in the week but reversed higher by the end of the week. The bears are still not able to create any selling pressure.
- The bulls have a tight bull channel. That means strong bulls.
- They want a strong breakout into a new all-time high territory, hoping that it will lead to many months of sideways to up trading.
- They will need to continue to create sustained follow-through buying above the prior all-time high.
- We may also see some profit-taking activity once the market starts to stall.
- If a pullback begins, the bulls want it to be sideways and shallow, filled with bull bars, doji(s) and overlapping candlesticks.
- The bears hope that the strong rally is simply a buy-vacuum test of the prior all-time high.
- They want a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal and a large wedge pattern (Feb 2, July 27, and Mar 1). They want a failed breakout above the all-time high and the trend channel line.
- They also see a parabolic wedge in the third leg up since October (Nov 22, Dec 28, and Mar 1) and an embedded wedge (Jan 24, Feb 9, and Mar 1).
- They hope to get a TBTL (Ten Bars, Two Legs) pullback of at least 5-to-10%. They want at least a test of the 20-week EMA.
- The problem with the bear’s case is that the rally is very strong. They would need to create a few strong bear bars to indicate that they are at least temporarily back in control. So far, they have not yet been able to do so.
- Since this week’s candlestick is a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for next week.
- The market continues to be Always In Long and odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little higher.
- The rally has lasted a long time and is slightly climactic. Traders are looking for signs of a minor pullback but there are none still.
- The bears continue to fail creating any selling pressure.
- Until the bears can create strong bear bars, traders will not be willing to sell aggressively.
- Sometimes, a euphoric market (as it is now) can continue higher into a blow-off top (parabolic climax).
- Traders will see if the bulls continue to create more follow-through buying.
Get The News You Want
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.