S&P 500 Earnings Update: Still Good
Brian Gilmartin | May 16, 2021 12:06AM ET
Starting out with the standard table showing 2021 S&P 500 EPS and revenue revisions, we should probably expect a slowing in the growth rates maybe starting next week, since the unofficial earnings season comes to an end with Walmart (NYSE:WMT)’s report Wednesday morning.
Data source: IBES data by Refinitiv
However rather than guess let’s see what the data tells us.
So far the 2021 EPS and revenue revisions look fine.
h2 The forward earnings curve: /h2Data source: IBES data by Refinitiv
For a couple of reasons, ive let this table slide the last 5 – 6 weeks, but here is the latest, with an old quarter falling off and a new quarter being added on.
Note the substantial 4-week rate(s) of change when Financials and Tech stocks reported.
S&P 500 data by the numbers:
- The forward 4-quarter estimate rose to $190.12 this past week from $189.96 last week. What’s surprising about the data is that – typically – we get sequential declines in the “forward 4-quarter” estimate during the 12 weeks of a quarter but a sequential decline has only happened last December 25th and then again on Mar. 26 2021.
- The PE on the forward estimate is 22x
- The S&P 500 earnings yield is at 4.56% vs 4.49% last week, nearing the high of 4.61% from late January ’21.
- 2021, 2022 and 2023 S&P 500 full year EPS have continued to trek higher every week. Pretty unprecedented period.
There is little change to the underlying S&P 500 earnings strength. This week we got back to updating and posting the “forward 4-quarter” S&P 500 earnings curve, and the revisions after Tech and Financials reported were pretty robust. (Check the 2nd spreadsheet.)
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Let see what happens after retail earnings.
Take everything you read here with a grain of salt. Tracking S&P 500 earnings data has it’s predictive flaws. Sometimes the market declines for reasons not earnings-related.
Thanks for reading.
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