S&P 500 Earnings: Steady Increases Across The Board This Week

 | Nov 27, 2021 11:49PM ET

TheStreet (Jim Cramer’s old site) was reporting this weekend that preliminary Mastercard SpendingPulse for Black Friday sales rose 29.8% with a sharp increase in mall traffic over last year; no surprise given the 2020 pandemic restrictions.

Online sales rose just 10.6% while in-store traffic rose 42.9%, both yoy.

With Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was trading at 20x the “expected” 8% EPS growth for 2022, while expected 2021 EPS was growing in the mid-40% range.

h2 S&P 500 key metrics/h2
  • The forward 4-quarter estimate jumped to $216.03 this week from last week’s $215.03;
  • The PE ratio on the forward estimate jumped to 21.3x versus last week’s 21.8x;
  • The S&P 500 earnings yield jumped to 4.70% from last week’s 4.58%, still lower than the 10/1 EY of 4.90%
  • The Q3 ’21 quarterly bottom-up S&P 500 estimate is now $53.82 vs the start of the quarter’s $49.11;
  • The Q3 ’21 quarterly bottom-up estimate is $51.15, almost identical to the 10/1 estimate of $51.08.

Analysts are still reluctant to lift forward estimates.

Looking at the percentage growth data, Q4 ’21’s expected S&P 500 EPS growth of 21.6% has changed little since the 10.1.21 expected growth rate of 21.7%, while the expected revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 has risen a full percent from 10.6% to 11.7%.

Here’s the history for Q3 and Q4 ’21 EPS and revenue revisions: