S&P 500 at Late December Low: Breakdown or Rebound?
Sunshine Profits | Jan 04, 2024 09:48AM ET
The stock market began the year on a very weak note, but currently, it appears to be just a correction of December’s advances. The S&P 500 index may also be entering a consolidation after a significant uptrend that started in November from the 4,100 level. On Tuesday, I closed my medium-term long position on the S&P 500 contract because Friday's volatility and market weakness before Tuesday's opening suggested the possibility of a larger pullback. Nevertheless, I believe that the medium-term uptrend is not reversing at the moment. It’s crucial to pay close attention to the trading action, as there could be more uncertainty and volatility ahead.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index closed 0.80% lower, approaching the 4,700 level, with the daily low at 4,699.71. The sell-off ended near the previous local low from December 20 (4,697.82). Investors continued to take profits off the table following last week’s rally, causing the market to bounce from the 4,800 level and the resistance marked by January 4, 2022, all-time high of 4,818.62.
Investor sentiment remains bullish; the yesterday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey showed that 48.6% of individual investors remain bullish, surprisingly higher than the previous reading of 46.3%. The AAII sentiment is a contrary indicator in the sense that highly bullish readings may suggest excessive complacency and a lack of fear in the market. Conversely, bearish readings are favorable for market upturns.
The market has been extending the uptrend since the release of the FOMC Statement on December 13, which marked a pivot in the Fed’s monetary policy. In early December, the S&P 500 broke above the late July local high of around 4,607, resuming a rally from the local low of 4,103.78 on October 27.
This morning, the S&P 500 futures contract is indicating a virtually flat opening of the trading session, currently unchanged compared to Wednesday’s close. The market has slightly weakened after better-than-expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims releases. Improving economic data may raise questions about anticipated interest rate cuts by the Fed.
As mentioned the previous Thursday, “the likely scenario is a consolidation along 4,700-4800”, and this prediction is proving accurate. How can we capitalize on such trading action? It’s better to shorten the timeframe of the trades and look for buying opportunities at support levels and selling at resistance levels.
Yesterday, the index approached a potential support level marked by the late December local low, as we can see on the daily chart.
Get The News You Want
The technology-focused Nasdaq 100 index extended its uptrend last week, reaching a new all-time high of 16,969.17 on Thursday. On Friday, I wrote, “While it continues to trade above its month-long uptrend line, there are, however, short-term overbought conditions that may lead to a downward correction at some point.”. Indeed, the market is experiencing a sharp sell-off this week. Although it still appears to be just a downward correction, caution is advised, as there are no confirmed buying signals at present.
The CBOE Volatility Index index, also known as the fear gauge, is derived from option prices. The higher it is, the greater the fear in the market. Currently, the index is approaching its local highs from November and December. Breakout higher could indicate a deeper correction or a new downtrend. It's worth noting that historically, a rising VIX accompanies a falling index and vice versa.
Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. This morning, it’s trading slightly below the 4,750 level, The resistance level remains at 4,800, with support at 4,750, marked by the recent local low. If the market breaks lower, the next support level could be at around 4,700.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.