Investing.com | Apr 01, 2024 06:40AM ET
In 2024, we're witnessing remarkable milestones across various markets. Stock markets like the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, DAX, and Nikkei 225 are hitting record highs, alongside surges in Bitcoin, gold, and other sectors like cocoa, coffee, and the USD/JPY pair.
The S&P 500 has surged by 10% in the first quarter, marking its strongest start since 2019, achieving 21 all-time highs. Interestingly, this rise isn't solely driven by tech stocks; 10 out of the 11 sectors within the S&P 500 have seen gains.
With the S&P 500 up by 25% in 2023 and another 10% in the first three months of 2024, some investors might feel apprehensive. However, several factors offer reassurance:
Overall, despite any potential concerns, historical trends and current market indicators suggest a positive outlook for the S&P 500 in 2024.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has experienced a decline of 10.93% in 2024, leading to questions about the impact on the S&P 500 if Apple's stock continues to fall.
While some may argue that the S&P 500's performance relies heavily on Apple due to its status as the largest company in the world, the reality is different.
Despite Apple's decline, the S&P 500 has seen a significant rise of +21% over the past 200 trading days.
During this period, Apple's shares have dropped by more than -6%, marking a considerable 27.2 percentage point gap between the two, the widest since October 2013.
Who are the most bullish on the S&P 500 in terms of where it will rise between now and the end of the year?
And the less optimistic?
The famous Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), which replicates the Nasdaq 100 index, celebrated its 25th anniversary on March 10.
Despite an -83% drop between March 2000 and October 2002, in its first 25 years of activity, the ETF posted a total return of +905.7% (an annualized return of +9.67%).
Central banks are buying gold generously. The latest data from the World Gold Council indicate that they have chained 14 years of gold purchases bringing their holdings to over 36,700 tonnes.
The last two years, moreover, have been particularly intense in terms of acquisitions amounting to 1,000 tons in both years and have broken all recent records.
In addition, central banks account for almost 20% of all gold in circulation.
China, Russia, Turkey, and India are the countries that have increased their gold reserves the most.
The relentless pace of central bank purchases is one of the reasons behind their record highs.
Market consensus expects oil prices to remain bullish through the summer months. There are two reasons for this:
The forecast from the Reuters survey of institutional managers is that oil prices Brent could rise to $90-95 between now and September.
Here's how the world's major stock exchanges are doing so far in 2024:
Bullish sentiment, i.e. expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 6.8 percentage points to 50%.This is unusually high and remains above its historical average of 37.5%.
Bearish sentiment, i.e., expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 4.7 percentage points to 22.4% and remains below its historical average of 31%.
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