S&P 'Bull Trap' Becomes A 'Bear Trap'
Declan Fallon | Nov 17, 2017 12:00AM ET
As this rally has often done, just as you expect a reversal to start, bulls come in (hard) to bid up the market. The S&P had the clearest switch as it moved from a 'bull trap' to a 'bear trap'. If it can post a break of 2,597 it will have little to stop it; in such a scenario watch for a fresh MACD 'buy' which would confirm recent losses as a pullback 'buy' opportunity. Stops on a loss of 2,557.
More impressive was the recovery in the Russell 2000. I'm not sure it has done enough to consume what will be plentiful supply all the way to 1,515. Despite the 1.5% gain there wasn't a significant improvement in technicals. There will not have been many longs to have taken a punt on the drift below the 50-day MA so much will depend on the strength of the short squeeze – Thursday was a good start.
The NASDAQ didn't disappoint. It was the safest long trade and despite the morning gap it was able to post additional gains. Upper channel resistance remains the upside target. Thursday's volume registers as confirmed accumulation.
The Dow Jones only managed a weak bounce but the telegraphed 'buy' at support should have survived a stop test.
Thursday's action was a useful start. Key to Friday will be closing in the upper part of Thursday's intraday range – irrespective of how much ground it gives up over the course of the day.
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