Michele Schneider | Jun 05, 2023 02:41AM ET
Last week we asked, “Can the Retail ETF (NYSE:XRT) hold here?”
We wrote that the Consumer Sector ETF had some words for you.
To summarize:
So here we are in June.
Granny XRT burned those that assumed she would fail.
The 6–8-year business cycle low, as measured by the 80-month moving average, held.
Many retail and value names presented traders with a low-risk entry AND relief for the Economic Modern Family.
If you are still in the camp of not believing charts are useful, you’re probably not reading this Daily.
Or you are reading this and remain on the fence about the validity of the technical analysis.
Even the biggest skeptics must admit that this clutch hold of the 80-month moving average is impressive and an important lesson for trading decisions.
The market got a pass for now. Yay.
What’s next on the wall of worry?
Granny Retail has more work to do to prove she is back in the game. On the monthly chart, 60.00 is a good place to watch for XRT to clear or not.
Looking ahead elsewhere, we have explored the idea that NASDAQ 100 can make it to 3800.
Also, S&P 500 can make it to 4400, and the Russell 2000 can make it to 1950.
But that would be a top because…..
Inflation will come back for a second round.
Here’s why.
The point is this.
In our prediction of stagflation, this rally in equities is not unexpected. The market will test the top of the trading ranges.
Nonetheless, we do not expect deflation, as so many analysts have mentioned.
We expect that the 25% decline in the CRB will reverse course as demand rises while supply chain issues have not fully resolved.
Regardless, what a fun ride and a very interesting year.
Stay tuned.
h2 ETF Summary/h2
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