Small Caps Must Clear Resistance to Rally
Michele Schneider | Aug 29, 2023 03:00AM ET
Bonds have had one of the worst years in modern times and one of the fastest rates of interest rate rises.
The good news is the market has absorbed the bond’s performance.
A better risk-on environment is when the SPY outperforms the long bonds.
The same is true with junk bonds outperforming long bonds. Another indicator of risk on.
The yield curve remains inverted. The potential recession indicator has not, to date, caused a recession.
Hence talk of a soft landing.
Will yields tap out at 5.5-5.75%? Many think so.
However, higher for longer seems more likely.
Furthermore, inflation is not quite done.
The PCE, due out this week, is at 4%, not 2%
And just as it took from 2020 until spring 2022 to see inflation soar and then peak, it is likely we will not see the impact on these rates until 2024 or even 2025.
Talking technical, bonds do not look likely to rally from here (TLT).
However, we are watching the October 2022 lows carefully.
A potential double bottom exists if TLTs can clear back above 98.
A move under 95, though, points more to a retest and possible break of the low 91.85.
How does this impact small caps?
Small caps, as measured by IWM, are key for the fall and into 2024.
Over the weekend, we covered that the Russell 2000 IWM could be forming an inverted head and shoulders bottom going back from the start of 2023.
First, though, it must hold 180 and clear 190. No small task.
Small caps are related to commercial real estate, so that is a caveat.
The Government has spent a lot of money on US manufacturing the Dallas Fed index fell less than expected.
In the US quest for more independence on goods, we must look to costs and labor for the trend to sustain.
It must be noted, though, that prices and wages paid soared.
The IWM chart shows a lack of leadership thus far against the SPY.
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The Real Motion Indicator has no real divergence from price.
Nonetheless, IWM needs more everything: more rally, more leadership, and more momentum.
h2 ETF Summary/h2- S&P 500 (SPY) 440 now back to pivotal
- Russell 2000 (IWM) Popped off the key support. 185 pivotal
- Dow (DIA) Will watch to see if it can back over 347
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 363 pivotal
- Regional banks (KRE) Needs to hold 44 to be convincing
- Semiconductors (SMH) 150 back to pivotal
- Transportation (IYT) 239 still support to hold with 252 biggest overhead resistance
- Biotechnology (IBB) Compression between 124-130
- Retail (XRT) the 6-month calendar range low is 62.90-needs to clear it
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