Gary Christenson | Jan 15, 2017 01:45AM ET
How low and how high will the price of silver range on the PAPER markets during 2017? Knowing the influence central bankers, politicians, HFT algos, bullion banks and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) exercise over increasingly managed markets … it is impossible to answer the question, and it is probably the wrong question to ask.h3 Instead, what do we know with a high degree of certainty?/h3
National Debt:
Plot the official national debt on a log scale every four years – presidential election years. The exponential increase (about 9% per year – every year) is unmistakable. Doubling debt approximately every eight years is not a winning strategy for the U.S. economy. Take cover!
Population Adjusted National Debt:
Yes, the official national debt, even adjusted for population growth, has increased exponentially for 100 years. Expect it to rise further and probably more rapidly as baby-boomers retire, uncontrolled Medicare costs skyrocket, and politicians aggressively spend with borrowed currency.
Silver prices have risen exponentially for 100 years, along with debt, consumer prices and currency in circulation. Note the log scale.
Silver to S&P 500 Ratio:
Plot monthly prices for the ratio of silver to the S&P 500 Index. In the long term both increase exponentially however the current price of silver is low compared to the price of the S&P 500. Note that silver prices are off two-thirds from their 2011 high while the S&P is at an all-time high. Expect silver prices to move much higher regardless of a potential correction in the S&P.
Silver Prices on a Log Scale:
Silver prices bottomed in 2001 and have risen erratically since then. The log scale trend channel has expanded which indicates wide volatility, because silver prices rise too rapidly and then crash. Prices are currently at the low end of the expanding channel. Expect silver prices to rise substantially from here.
The center line of the expanding channel reaches approximately $50 by the end of 2017. The high end of the channel is about three times higher. This guarantees nothing but it indicates, based on the last 17 years of price history, that a paper silver price of $50 should NOT be surprising. Of course it will be a shock according to official pronouncements from “experts” on Wall Street who believe that all savings should be invested (trapped) in their digital accounts, but … consider the source.
From The Burning Platform :
h3 /h3 h3 RISK and DEBT!/h3“… there is only one thing more frightening than not knowing what is coming next, and that is living in a world run by ‘experts’ who think they know exactly what is going to happen next. These are the same ‘experts’ who didn’t see the 2005 housing bubble, the 2008 financial collapse, the EU implosion, Brexit, or the Trump presidency.
Our financial world sits upon a precarious peak of debt, monetary ignorance, rising interest rates, risky derivatives and flawed economic models, while politicians and central bankers aggressively pursue failed policies, to the detriment of all but the financial and political elite. 2017 will probably be the year of the implosion and that suggests silver prices should easily exceed $30. I certainly will not be surprised if the paper silver price reaches and exceeds $50 in 2017 – 2018. Based on spending, debt, warfare, welfare, currency devaluations, monetary stupidity, cyber wars, loss or dollar reserve currency status, declining silver ore concentrations, central bank interventions, currency wars, Italian banking problems, and so much more, we should consider prices of $50 – $100 as not only possible in 2017 but a near certainty by 2019 – 2022.
h3 Silver Cycles:/h3Cycles are slippery but consider the following chart which shows that silver reached lows in 1994-5, 2001, 2008 and 2017, about every seven years. The vertical lines on the chart below are spaced every 84 months. Note that silver bottomed in December 2015 and the next bottom is not due until about 2022-23.
Our central bankers and commercial bankers, thanks to fractional reserve banking, excessive debt creation, shadow banking, QE, bailouts and more have created a great many digital dollars. The price of gold (similar for silver) versus the monetary base shows how low the price of gold (silver) is compared to the zillions of digital currency units created by banks. Consider the following chart (macrotrends.net).
From an interview with Ted Butler :
h3 “The facts surrounding silver have never been more bullish.”/h3h3 /h3 h3 CONCLUSIONS – Continued:/h3“In only a few years, JPMorgan has accumulated the largest hoard of silver in the history of the world.” [… physical silver, not the paper stuff…]
“A price rise is inevitable.”
“Imagine silver as a poker game. The stakes are in the billions. JPMorgan is holding an ace, king high royal flush. It’s a lock so they can’t lose. Everybody else at the table has four of a kind or a full house. JPMorgan is in no hurry to win the pot.”
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