Short Sellers Flee Questcor On Sentiment Reversal

 | Jun 17, 2013 02:33PM ET

Questcor Pharmaceuticals (NVS ) for $135 M, which triggered last week’s more sustained rally into the mid $40/share range. Questcor shareholders were terrified at the potential introduction of a synthetic version of corticotropin gel due to the low manufacturing costs and the ability for competitors to deeply undercut H.P. Acthar’s $28,000 price. Since this threat has been removed (for now), investors generally expect Questcor to retain its financial strength for quite some time.

The Takeaway
Questcor Pharmaceuticals’ business is primarily focused on their animal-derived corticotropin (or adrenocorticotropin, ACTH) gel product, known as H.P. Acthar Gel. Although attractive to the analysts that were covering the company based on financials, Questcor didn’t receive the kind of mainstream attention from the biotech investor community until Aetna took action against the company’s marketing practices.

QCOR stock has generally recovered from last year’s smackdown, which is why we’ve become less enthusiastic about the upside and more concerned about the potential for the company to disappoint. Third party prescription data shows that Acthar has been doing very well this month (especially last week) -- likely as a result of Acthar’s introduction to a number of new indications in recent months, although it’s worth noting that the “weak hand” shorts are likely to have covered at this point.

Also note that Questcor’s valuation has increased dramatically, and is approaching $3 B. Based on the new price per share, the new dividend yield of 2.2% does not draw nearly as much interest. Note that the yield was originally 4% after it was introduced by company management to discourage short selling of QCOR stock and the reassurance of shareholders of the company’s financial strength.

Questcor is still inexpensive based on the financial data that the company is producing, but the “easy money” has been made since the initial drop in September 2012.

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