Short Looks At U.S. National Activity
Doug Short | Jul 22, 2013 09:32AM ET
According to the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, June economic activity slightly improved from May, now at -0.13, up from May's -0.29 (an downward revision from -0.30). This is the second consecutive month with "slightly improved" as the official summation. However, this index has been negative (meaning below-trend growth) for thirteen of the past sixteen months.
Here are the opening paragraphs from the report: The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to -0.26 in June from -0.37 in May, marking its fourth consecutive reading below zero. June's CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. The CFNAI Diffusion Index increased to -0.03 in June from -0.19 in May. Forty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 44 made negative contributions. Forty-two indicators improved from May to June, while 41 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 13 made negative contributions. [Understanding the CFNAI Components , which I update and post a few hours after the CFNAI is released.
Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to -0.13 in June from -0.29 in May. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in June. 
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