Sequester: No Matter What Happens, It Is Wrong
Econintersect LLC | Mar 03, 2013 01:35AM ET
CBO [Congressional Budget Office] requests appropriations of $45.7 million for fiscal year 2014. That amount represents an increase of $1.6 million, or 3.7 percent, from the $44.1 million (on an annualized basis) provided to CBO under the continuing resolution for fiscal year 2013. The increase would enable CBO to support 235 full-time-equivalent positions (FTEs), which would be roughly 7 percent less than the 254 FTEs funded in 2010 and in line with the FTEs funded between 2004 and 2008. The increase also would enable the agency to catch up on critical purchases of information technology and other items that are being deferred this year. The proposed budget represents the amount that CBO believes will be necessary to avoid a further reduction in the information and analysis that the agency provides to the Congress.
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The real gauge – the 4 week moving average – also improved from 360,750 (reported last week) to 355,000. Because of the noise (week-to-week movements from abnormal events AND the backward revisions to previous weeks releases), the 4-week average remains the reliable gauge.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)
Bankruptcies this Week: Ormet, Conexant Systems
Data released this week which contained economically intuitive components (forward looking) were:
- Rail movements are somewhat improving.
All other data released this week either does not have enough historical correlation to the economy to be considered intuitive, or is simply a coincident indicator to the economy.
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