Safer-Haven Assets Vs. Stocks
Pacific Park Financial Inc. | Jan 21, 2015 01:13PM ET
The S&P 500 soared 29.6% and 11.4% in 2013 and 2014 respectively, pushing the broad market benchmark to unimaginable heights. Net inflows into U.S. stock funds, including ETFs, also set records. Unfortunately, that is not always a positive sign for the asset class.
The increased participation by the world’s investors in U.S. stocks may not be inordinately alarming. What might be far more ominous? The remarkable performance of safer-haven assets over “stuck-in-place” stock assets since the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) on October 31. Specifically, the U.S. 30-Year yield has plummeted from roughly 3.0% to 2.4%, sending a proxy like PIMCO 25-Plus Year Zero Coupon (NYSE:ZROZ) up more than 20%. Similarly, iShares 20 Year Treasury (ARCA:TLT) has pocketed nearly 14%, while SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD) has rallied about 10%.
The appetite for risk has been changing before our eyes. Remember the success of riskier equities in 2013, as investors ran from treasury bonds and gold? Indeed, 2013 was only one of two negative years for total bond returns across two decades. Equally staggering, gold appeared to many as if it might collapse altogether.
The nature of risk shifted in 2014. Large-cap U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 still rocketed mightily. Yet the clear preference of stocks over safer holdings evaporated; treasuries rallied throughout the year, in spite of the near-unanimous sentiment that interest rates would fall. (Note: I am not opposed to tooting my own horn on this one – I recommended pairing large-cap stock ETFs with long duration treasury ETFs like Vanguard Extended Duration (NYSE:EDV) and PIMCO 25+Year Zero Coupon (NYSE:ZROZ) 13 months earlier.)
Safer haven assets were every bit as desirable as the Dow and the S&P 500 in 2014. Some of them like TLT and ZROZ were more desirable. At least for a calendar round-trip, the ownership of historically divergent asset classes produced harmony and indivisibility. Is that uncommon for a late-stage bull market? Not particularly.
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On the other hand, the landscape may be changing. The perceived need for safety has risen appreciably since the Federal Reserve ended its electronic money printing in October. For example, in 2015, each of the 10 components of the FTSE Custom Multi-Asset Stock Hedge Index has gained ground, whereas the S&P 500 has drifted lower. Those component assets include long-maturity treasuries, zero-coupon bonds, munis, inflation-protected securities, German bunds, Japanese government bonds, gold the Swiss franc, the yen and the dollar.
Granted, the European Central Bank (ECB) intention to create $50 billion euros monthly for a year could reward risk-taking in the same manner that the Federal Reserve’s $85 billion per month had. On the flip side, the $600 billion euro figure that is floating on newswires may come off as underwhelming, as the Fed’s QE3 had been open-ended upon its announcement. Moreover, the “stimulus” amount ran beyond the trillion-and-a-half level.
Keep in mind, you do not need to run from stock risk if you have a plan to minimize the severe capital depreciation associated with bear markets. My approach in latter stage bull markets involves pairing lower volatility stock ETFs like iShares USA Minimum Volatility (NYSE:USMV) and iShares S&P 100 (NYSE:OEF) with safer-haven ETFs like Vanguard Long-Term Bond (ARCA:BLV) and Vanguard Extended Duration (NYSE:EDV). If popular stock benchmarks breach 200-day trendlines, I reduce equity exposure and/or employ multi-asset stock hedging by investing in those assets with a history of performing well in moderate-to-severe stock downturns.
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