Rotation Trade From The Overvalued Into The Less Overvalued Continues
Michael Kramer | Mar 11, 2021 12:47AM ET
It was a mixed day for stocks on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 up and the NASDAQ 100 down. We continue to see this rotation trade taking place. Some of these “value” stocks aren’t the value they may seem to be. Still, it is more of a trade out of the overvalued technology and discretionary names into the less overvalued industrial, materials, and financial names.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw the S&P 500 fill gaps at lower levels the rest of the week. Yesterday it appears we completed a rising wedge on the intraday charts and failed upon retest resulting in the breakdown. Based on that, a drop back to 3,875 seems reasonable and probably a push lower back to 3,820.
It seems there is too much resistance at this 3900 level, while option positioning appears to be creating a headwind. Unless we gap sharply higher today, above yesterday’s highs, I think the likelihood is that we trade down the next couple of days.
US 10-year yields continue to trend higher, despite trading flat yesterday. The CPI data came in mostly in line, while the core readings were 10 bps below expectations. The results were not enough to move the needle.
So the interesting thing will be what happens with the PPI on Friday. It is expected to climb by 2.7% on a year-over-year basis. That is 1% higher than yesterday’s CPI. If that type of trend continues, it will imply that producers of goods cannot pass along their rising cost to consumers; what happens to margins at that point?
I tend to think that inflation fears overall will die down by the late summer or fall, but in the meantime, the market could have a field day with margin compression worries, especially with earnings multiples at these levels. Just thinking about what comes after the inflation worries.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) tested resistance yesterday at $520 and failed, trading lower by 40 bps. The stock probably has further to fall, and it wouldn’t surprise me. The valuation is high, and the more rates rise, the lower it will need to go.
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Micron (NASDAQ:MU) is acting a little funny here, and I don’t like that the RSI is diverging from the price. The stock is now sitting right on the uptrend, and a drop below $85 pushes it back to $75.
There is an amazing-looking descending triangle that is present in Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM). That is a bearish pattern by the way. A drop below $113, probably pushes the shares back to $105.
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