Risk Higher In The Face Of Gloom

 | Nov 28, 2011 08:15AM ET

The new week in Asia started off in a dynamic fashion today as the rumor mill sent risk gapping higher on the Monday open. A newspaper article in Italy made claims that the IMF was set to help bail out the nation to the tune of 600 Billion Euros, sending the EUR/USD almost a big figure higher to opening levels near 1.3320. While the Italian newspaper that ran the story would not give any details on sources, risk remained lofted despite the fact that many looked at the story with skepticism. The moves were significant for a Monday in Asia, with the AUD/USD adding almost 80 pips to 0.9885, and the EUR/JPY crossing 103.50 on the day.

The Italian news wasn’t the only driver of risk today as Friday’s “Black Friday” shopping in the US was up over 6.6% over last year to produce over $11 Billion in retail sales shooting S&P futures and regional bourses higher on the day. The good sales numbers were a nice distraction from recent gloom and doom, but that same gloom and doom snuck back in later in the session when the IMF bailout story was shot down by the Dow Jones newswire. This story dropped the bottom out of risk, as the EUR/USD fell about 45 pips, EUR/JPY fell over 20 pips, and the AUD/USD saw a slide from 0.9888 highs to 0.9820 in a matter of minutes. Adding insult to injury, Moody’s followed the news with comments that “the probability of multiple defaults out of the Euro Zone was no longer negligible”. Strangely, and despite all of this, risk has regrouped and continued to push higher heading into the London session.

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