Metals Charts Review And The Implications Of The Latest COTs
The Gold Report | Apr 03, 2018 12:38AM ET
We've certainly got plenty to look at in coming days, but perhaps a good place to start is with a review of some of the latest COTs, because of their implications for the immediate future. The following charts make very clear why those in control of publishing COT data hold up its release for three days (the data is always for Tuesday's close) so that those at the top of the food chain can position themselves comfortably to benefit from early knowledge of what's going on before the ordinary shmuck does—observe how the uptrends in both copper and the broad market S&P 500 index presaged by the COTs have already started by the end of the week. In looking at the charts, keep in mind that markets were closed on Friday.
Short-term trend in gold is down, intermediate trend neutral, with long-term outlook very positive. On its latest 6-month chart we can that it has backed off again from resistance, this time from a slightly lower level, with the retreat predicated by the now bearish COTs, or rather it would be if it didn’t take three days for this information to be made public. Taking into account that the COT probably eased on Wednesday's and Thursday's drop, further short-term weakness look likely until this COT has moderated.
Silver's price pattern looks less positive than gold's, but its latest COTs look flat out bullish, with the habitually wrong Large Specs having given up on silver completely and now shorting it, which is something we have never seen throughout the history of the site. This is viewed as being very bullish indeed. Even so, silver will probably have to wait for gold to sort itself out before it can mount a significant rally, since it is unlikely to rise by itself while gold languishes. Continued near-term weakness will be viewed as an opportunity to build positions further in silver investments. The latest silver COTs are so bullish that even if silver does drop in sympathy with gold, it is unlikely to be by much.
Get The News You Want
Click on chart to pop-up a larger, clearer version. It's also worth taking a brief look at copper and its COTs because of its implications for metals markets generally. Copper's COT has been decidedly bearish for some time, and it is thus not surprising that the price has dropped back from its December high. However, as it arrived back at an important support level last week, its COTs eased right back from earlier bearish readings to levels that permit copper to turn higher again, and that's what happened last week with another rally starting. With the price near to a still rising 200-day moving average, this rally is believed to have legs and should carry further.
Click on chart to pop-up a larger, clearer version. The broad stock market picked up on Friday and advanced off significant support near to its rising 200-day moving average, where a small base pattern formed over the past week. Overall the pattern is viewed as bearish with the two sharp drops so far this year regarded as a warning. However, it is entitled to rally off this support towards its March highs, although it is quite likely that it will turn lower again before it gets to them. Latest COTs quite came in bullish and support the rally scenario, although we should note that these S&P 500 index COTs are volatile and can change tack very quickly.
Disclosure: 1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Clive Maund and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Clive Maund is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in the content preparation. Clive Maund was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. 2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer . This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.