Retail Growth Healthy, But Best Gains Have Already Been Made
George Leong | Jun 10, 2013 04:15AM ET
We all know that consumer spending and the performance of the retail sector dictates the direction of economic renewal in the U.S. It’s quite simple—if consumers spend, the economy and the retail sector will grow.
Now, with home prices nationwide continuing to rise and the jobs creation picture showing signs of improvement (though it is still slogging along), the end result has been a rise in consumer spending, which has helped to drive the retail sector.
Spending on durable goods is a good indicator of how positive consumers are in the retail sector, as this spending is on nonessential goods. So when consumers spend on this group, you know there’s some confidence in the overall economy. In April, durable goods surged 3.3%, which was well above both the Briefing.com estimate calling for a 1.5% decline and the 5.9% decline in March. On an ex-transportation basis, durable goods increased 1.3%.
Retail sales edged up 0.1% in April, which was above both the Briefing.com estimate calling for a 10.7% drop and the 0.5% decline in March.
In May so far, 10 U.S. retail chains have reported, and the results have been good, with the key same-store sales surging up 3.9% versus the 3.7% estimate. (Source: Wahba, P., “Retailers’ sales rise in May, spending stays moderate,” Reuters, June 6, 2013.)
Results from the big-box stores continue to be healthy in the retail sector.
Market leader Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) reported sales growth of seven percent in May, while its key same-store sales increased by five percent.
A big surprise was delivered by American Apparel, Inc (APP), which reported an impressive 10% surge in its same-store sales in May. American Apparel remains an excellent speculative play that has moved up over 10% since my review. The best thing about this company is that its clothes are all manufactured in the U.S., which will cater to the patriotic looking for real “made in the USA” stocks.
The stock chart of the S&P Retail Index below shows the steady climb of the retail sector since the beginning of the year; the chart is also indicating that the retail sector is currently facing some stalling.
Much of the consumer buying has been largely due to the availability of cheap money and financing. People are saving less, given the low yields, and are spending more.
In my view, the retail sector continues to show promise, but the easy money has been made. For the aggressive trader, you need to consider contrarian retail opportunities, including bebe stores, Inc. (BEBE), Chico’s FAS, Inc. (CHS), Ascena Retail Group, Inc. (ASNA), and Saks Incorporated (SKS).
Get The News You Want
Disclaimer: Dear Reader: There is no magic formula to getting rich. Success in investment vehicles with the best prospects for price appreciation can only be achieved through proper and rigorous research and analysis. The opinions in this e-newsletter are just that, opinions of the authors. Information contained herein, while believed to be correct, is not guaranteed as accurate. Warning: Investing often involves high risks and you can lose a lot of money. Please do not invest with money you cannot afford to lose.
Original post
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.