Relief Bounce In Markets
Declan Fallon | Dec 17, 2014 11:21PM ET
Those who took advantage of markets at Fib levels were rewarded yesterday. However, this looked more like a 'dead cat' style bounce than a genuine bottom forming low. This can of course change, and one thing I will want to see is narrow action near yesterday's high. Volume was a little light, but with Christmas fast approaching I would expect this trend to continue.
The S&P 500 inched above 2,009, but I would like to see any subsequent weakness hold the 38.2% Fib level at 1,989.
The NASDAQ offered itself more as a support bounce, with a picture perfect play off its 38.2% Fib level. Unlike the S&P, volume did climb in confirmed accumulation. The next upside challenge for the index will be its 20-day MA. Note, Tuesday's close marked the turn to net bearish technicals. This is often a marker for a longer term decline.
Small Caps enjoyed a great day, returning 3% and posting what looks like a 'bear trap' in play. Again, I would like to see some consolidation of yesterday's gain, but Small Caps may be the one to deliver the 'Santa Rally' everyone is looking for.
The Semiconductor index tagged breakout support at 659. A bullish engulfing pattern of Tuesday's doji is also something to consider. It looks to be the index most likely to deliver an immediate follow through gain today.
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For today, look to the Russell 2000 and Semiconductor Index to deliver upside or consolidate yesterday's gains. Fundamental factors may distort this outlook, but these should level out over the coming days.
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