USD's Recurring Pattern 18 Months Later
Ashraf Laidi | Sep 18, 2018 02:43PM ET
Trump's latest announcement to impose tariffs on 10% of Chinese exports started with a risk-off reaction in Asian trade before markets stabilized on the rationalization that traders had been expecting levies as as high as 20%.h3 Watch Stocks/h3
The USD's reaction remains largely driven by the reaction in equity indices, with the yen relationship the most consistent. Combining the trade-war factor with the Fed question (how high can it raise rates despite signs of peaking inflation) and the emerging-market debt pain and you end up with a blurry picture for the US dollar.
Alternatively, you could to refer to the daily chart of the U.S. Dollar index and assess the recurring pattern between price and moving averages. Whether the 55-DMA crosses below the 100-DMA as it did 18 months ago following the right-shoulder failure remains to be seen. Yet what does it mean for EUR/USD? On Monday I argued for invalidating a long-term head-and-shoulders formation in favor of a more pressing and immediate technical development. The argument is further supported when factoring the dollar index into the individual USD pairs.
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