Reading The Swiss Franc (EUR, USD)
Marc Chandler | Jul 27, 2017 10:52AM ET
The Swiss franc is trading at its lowest level against the euro since the Swiss National Bank surprised the world by lifting the currency cap in early 2015. This week's move has been especially pronounced. The euro has appreciated by a little more than 2% against the franc. Barring a setback tomorrow, it will be the largest weekly advance in 2 1/2 years.
The euro and the Swiss franc are highly correlated. Over the past 60 days, the correlation of percentage change of the two currencies is 0.85. For the past two years, the rolling 60-day correlation has not fallen below 0.75 and has rarely moved above 0.90. That makes this week's development all the more eye-catching. The franc has fallen 1.6% against the US dollar (~CHF0.9615), while the euro has risen 0.4% (~$1.1695).
The euro reached a new 30-month high today, edging briefly above $1.1775. The dollar bottomed against the Swiss franc last week (July 21) near CHF0.9440. Today it is posting a potential outside up day. The dollar briefly fell through yesterday's lows in Asia and now has rallied above yesterday's high. A close above yesterday's high (almost CHF0.96) would be a bullish technical development.
This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows this on a line chart. The dollar's performance against the franc over the past year, including its recent turn higher, is shown in the white chart. To show the euro in an intuitively clearer way, we took the inverse of how it is typically quoted. The decline shown in the chart is the decline of the dollar against the euro.
The $2 mln question is whether or not the Swiss franc is a lead indicator for the euro. Over the past year, it appears that to the contrary, it is the euro that leads the Swiss franc. The euro is not just gaining against the dollar and Swiss franc, but has also appreciated against the yen and sterling. Euro strength, the evolving ECB policy toward altering its risk assessment and likely the pace of its asset purchases is sucking in capital from other major financial centers.
At the same time, the Swiss National Bank, like the Bank of Japan, has indicated it will lag behind the other major central banks. SNB President Jordan continues to complain about the overvaluation of the Swiss franc. The OECD calculates that the Swiss franc ($1=CHF0.9600), is 23% over-valued, the most in the OECD's universe. The SNB has hardly broached the topic of unwinding the rate cuts that brought the deposit rate to minus 75 bp. Swiss (generic) yields are negative out 9-10 years.
Get The News You Want
Swiss equities are up 10% year-to-date, which is comparable to the US, but above the performance of core bourses, but trailing the 12.5%-13.2% gain in Italy and Spain. However, there are still incentives for Swiss savings to be exported. And given the preference for foreign fixed income, high currency hedge ratios appear to be the customary practice. No one can afford to be bitten by the same dog twice and in light of the sharp appreciation of the franc following the removal of the cap, high hedge ratios were likely maintained. However, with the franc weakening and adverse rate movements, buying franc hedges is becoming more costly and, arguably, less desirable.
Although the consensus narrative emphasizes ECB tapering and the doubts over whether the Fed will raise interest rates again this year, the turning point for the euro came when it became clear that the populist-nationalist wave was going to be turned back in France. The easing of the political anxiety, which was a key theme in the 2017, has also removed a prop for the franc.
We do not think the franc's losses against the dollar is a convincing sign that the euro is about to turn lower. We suspect the franc's weakness is a reflection of euro strength that is being seen against several other major currencies. That said, we are closely monitoring the interest-rate differential between the US and Germany. At 203 bp, the two-year US premium is at its highest level in a month and the 10-year premium of 177 bp is the most in two weeks. If the premium continues to trend in the US favor, the dollar may get better traction. Still, we recognize that US policy uncertainty may encourage investors to demand a greater interest-rate premium. In turn, this means that a wider differential is needed to support any dollar level.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.