RBA Preview: Not Much Chance Of Rate Cut
Dane Williams | Aug 04, 2015 12:01AM ET
RBA Tuesday! Although there isn’t much chance that Stevens will pull the trigger on another cut to fresh record lows, the accompanying statement and the wording that the bank provides will be key to how the Aussie dollar reacts.
Cash rate futures have priced in only a 9% chance that the RBA will cut rates to fresh 1.75% lows this afternoon in Sydney, and this sentiment is backed up by the Reuters economist survey, with only 1 out of the 22 forecasting a cut. Yes, there is always 1 or 2 looking to get their name up in lights for taking a contrarian view. Wouldn’t it be interesting to know which of these economists are actually taking an AUD/USD position into the decision on the back of their surveyed opinion!
So what should we be looking out for in the accompanying statement?:
The line of ‘further depreciation in the AUD seems both likely and necessary’ has grown tired, and at these levels it could almost be seen as fair value. I say almost because I don’t know if Stevens will want to undo all his hard work by saying this and having the AUD rally hard on the back of it. The market would surely take that as a signal of a bottom.
The other major economic talking point around the Australian economy has been what is the ideal growth rate? Meaning the level keeping unemployment and inflation in an ideal band. For a long time, this ideal number for growth has been 3% but with this number not having been reached for the last 6 years, Stevens brought up the idea of potentially downgrading the RBA’s growth forecast. This is where I’ve seen a few questions asked around the fact that this could be a catalyst to actually continue to cut rates on.
Just remember that as always, the Sydney housing market remains a huge thorn in the side of the RBA when debating whether cutting rates on a slowing economy will be healthy overall. This theme has been put onto the back-burner a little bit but it’s effect on their decision making is not to be underestimated.
Let’s now take a look at the charts:
AUD/USD Weekly:
We’ve been watching the above weekly level where we have a confluence of support from the long term bullish weekly trend line and the short term bearish channel. This level really is key and another huge reason why this level around 70c is seen as ‘fair value’.
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AUD/USD 4 Hourly:
The 4 hourly chart shows the way that price has been stepping down inside it’s bearish channel. The break of support and then the retest almost to the pip on 4 hourly wicks is textbook price behaviour in a strong bearish trend.
Aussie Data Dump:
Just remember that before the RBA decision at 2.30pm Sydney time, we have a flurry of data releases in the morning.
“AUD Retail Sales m/m (0.5% expected, 0.3% previously)”
“AUD Trade Balance (-3.06B expected, -2.75B previously)”
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On the Calendar Tuesday:
AUD Retail Sales
AUD Trade Balance
AUD Cash Rate
AUD RBA Rate Statement
GBP Construction PMI
USD Factory Orders
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