Quebec: Real GDP Up 0.1% In November
The National Bank of Canada | Mar 03, 2013 06:08AM ET
NUMBERS: The Institut de la statistique du Québec reports that Quebec real GDP at basic prices edged up 0.1% in November, trailing Canada as a whole (0.3%), after gains of 0.3% in October and 0.2% in September (top chart). Goods output was down 0.1% in November after a 0.7% jump in October. Among goods-producing industries, agriculture (+1.1%), mining and oil extraction (4.6%) and utilities (+1.0%) were up, while construction (−0.5%) and manufacturing (−0.8%) were down. Industrial production retreated 0.1% after a gain of 1.1% in October. Services output edged up 0.1%, led by retailing (0.8%) and wholesaling (0.6%). The trailing service-industry groups were arts, entertainment and recreation (−0.9%) and business management (−0.9%).
OPINION: The results for November are lacklustre but follow decent showings in October and September. Today’s simultaneous report for these three months provides a better idea of how the Quebec economy fared in the second half of 2012. The good news is that growth accelerated to 2.1% in Q3 after spending three quarters in the doldrums. Two months into Q4, growth is tracking 1.5%, well ahead of Canada’s 0.5%. Despite this second-half strength, the weakness of the first half will keep 2012 growth below 1%. After 11 months, it is tracking 0.8%, in line with our most recent estimate published last month. The second half strength of the Quebec economy is due mainly to the services sector (bottom chart). Less cheerful is the news from construction and manufacturing, two cyclical sectors with a declining output in Q3 and on track to decline even further in Q4.
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