Quarterly Revenue Forecasts For Dow Jones Companies, June 2016
Evgeny Ilyukhin | May 16, 2016 03:43PM ET
The article aims to provide forecasts for quarterly revenues of the Dow Jones Industrial Average companies for June 2016. DJIA is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq.
It is assumed that there is a strong relationship between financial announcements and stock returns especially in case of revenue/earnings surprises. One can use forecasted trends and values to make proper investment/trading decisions prior to announcement dates.
The quarterly values in million US dollars over the period from March 2015 to March 2016 (Sharadar database) and forecasted period (author’s calculations) for June 2016 are presented in the table below.
Notice that quarterly data for American Express Co (NYSE:AXP), General Electric Co (NYSE:GE), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) and United Technologies Corp (NYSE:UTX) can be different from other data sources.
Forecasts are projected with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model based on relevant quarterly data (March 2003 - March 2016). Companies are placed in alphabetical order. Forecasted values: increase in green; decrease in red.
The notable revenue increases are expected for J & J Snack Foods Corp (NASDAQ:JJSF) (24.88%), Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) (24.38%), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) (20.46%), United Technologies Corp (UTX) (16.31%) and International Business Machines Corp (NYSE:IBM) (10.04%).
Sales of Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT) (-12.91%) and Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) (-8.90%) will likely drop in the second quarter.
Generally, the DJIA companies would show positive changes in their revenues. The results are more applicable to making investment/trading decisions, as there are more or less steady statistical patterns in the time series, especially for the companies with clear seasonality (e.g. retailers).
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