Q2 Industrials Sector Earnings Preview: Rebound in Stocks

 | Jul 24, 2023 03:34PM ET

While the industrials sector doesn’t grab headlines like electric cars and artificial intelligence, it’s arguably a bedrock of the economy. Without railroads to carry products to market, engines to power airliners, and pipes and furnaces to equip manufacturing plants, little would get done in the other sexier sectors.

Industrials can also be a helpful barometer for investors trying to gauge broader economic health and consumer demand. A thriving farm economy, for instance, tends to buy more tractors and harvesters from industrial companies. A strong homebuilding market needs more construction vehicles, and new manufacturing facilities require miles of piping. Travel demand means airlines need more planes, and rising power needs require more turbines. Industrials also include the defense industry, so the recent trend toward heavier military spending can be a tailwind for companies like Boeing (NYSE:BA) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT).

Recent industrials sector performance on Wall Street suggests the economy may be gaining traction. Industrials took off in June after months of relatively flat performance and rose 12% from late May through early July, easily outpacing 7% gains for the S&P 500 over that same period. Some of the biggest industrials movers and shakers yet to report—including Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Honeywell (NASDAQ:HON), Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW), Boeing Co (NYSE:BA), and Deere (NYSE:DE)—participated in that move higher.

As Q2 earnings roll in, investors might want to closely monitor what executives say about demand from their corporate customers and what it means for second-half performance. This could provide clues into the health of the manufacturing economy not just here in the United States but also in China, where growth hasn’t been as robust as many economists had expected following the pandemic reopening.

Another thing to check is what higher interest rates extending further into 2024 might mean for demand and how rising costs for essentials like copper and crude oil might challenge the sector. The last time industrials companies reported in April and May, the market built in firm probabilities of interest rate cuts later this year by the Federal Reserve, and commodity costs were generally heading down. Neither is the case any longer, which might mean companies could go back to the drawing board regarding future expansion plans and their need for industrial equipment.

Tracking industrials also means considering subsectors, some of which don’t move in sync with others. Railroads and arms makers don’t necessarily share the same fundamentals. Neither do turbines and power tools. It helps to break things down by looking at a handful of the biggest companies and exploring their challenges and opportunities.

Get The News You Want
Read market moving news with a personalized feed of stocks you care about.
Get The App

Several large industrials firms have already reported Q2 earnings, including LMT and railroad company CSX (NASDAQ:CSX), so we’ll start with a quick review. Then we’ll move on to a few major firms reporting in the coming weeks and some factors to watch with those.