Q1 GDP Data Will Likely Mask True Global Economic Future – Part 2
Chris Vermeulen | Apr 30, 2020 04:39PM ET
This portion of our continued research into the COVID-1 virus event, one of the greatest disruptions to the global economy over the past 50+ years, concludes in this article. In Part 1 of this article, I highlighted how price factors and economic data continue to suggest the U.S. and the global stock market will likely attempt to retest recent lows or fall further, as the extent of the virus event continues to play out. In this second portion, i will highlight some of this data and present the opposite aspect of the technical/data-driven research.
Recently, something very important has happened in the U.S. stock market – a breakout of sorts. The weakness we expected to see last week prior to the new $500 billion in new stimulus appeared to end this past week. Not only have the markets opened a bit higher this week, but they have continued to push higher over the past 3+ days. From a technical standpoint, as long as the support channels and current trends do not falter, the U.S. stock market may continue to push higher before breaking this uptrend.
NASDAQ 100 Daily Chart
This Nasdaq 100 Daily chart highlights the upside price trend that originated a bottom just as the U.S. Fed initiated a massive stimulus program. Weakness in the market, from a technical perspective, is still the overall trend because of the move away from the February highs. At this point, even if the markets continue to rally, we would need to see a substantially higher price move to establish a new bullish trend. Yet, as long as price stays above the RSI price channel and the relatively low price channel on this chart, the upside potential is higher than the downside price trend we have been predicting.
SPY (NYSE:SPY) Daily Chart
This SPY Daily chart highlights the same type of setup. We can easily see the minor rotation in price last week that prompted us to issue a warning that price may be turning lower near key Fibonacci levels. Yet, early this week stock prices pushed higher – even as far weaker global economic data was published. As long as this upward trend holds, price should continue to move higher. If it breaks below these price channels highlighted on this chart – look out below.
Get The News You Want
At this point, it appears the market is more about a battle between the U.S. Fed and the global central bankers dumping capital into the market to prevent a greater price collapse versus the data that is starting to support a global economic collapse that may be bigger than the 2008-09 credit crisis. Currently, it appears global traders and investors are banking on the central banks' capacity to pour capital into the markets to suppress risks that appear to be growing.
The next series of charts highlight the U.S. economic data as we are just entering a reporting period that reflects the contraction in the U.S. and global economies. Pay attention to this data and the scope of the collapse compared to the 2008-09 crisis event.
Redbook Retail Sales Index (WoW)
This first chart is the Redbook Retail sales index (WoW) data. The collapse this week and last is far greater than the lowest levels in 2008~09.
Richmond Manufacturing Index
This next chart is the Richmond Manufacturing Index. Again, the newest data is near twice as deep as the 2008-09 credit crisis levels at their deepest levels. Remember, we are just starting to see the data from the COVID-19 virus event.
U.S. Quarterly GDP Data
This next chart is the U.S. Quarterly GDP data. The -4.8% level is deep, but still a bit away from the -6.3% level that happened in the 2008-09 credit crisis. Yet, we believe the Q2 GDP data could offer a number below -8~10%.
Pending Home Sales Chart
This Pending Home Sales chart confirms a very broad contraction in home-buying activity. In the midst of the 2008-09 crisis, this data printed a -29.9% data point in July 2010 – well after the bottom in the markets had completed. We believe the next few months will present even deeper sales data.
Real Consumer Spending
Real consumer spending has collapsed. Consumer engagement makes up a large portion of all global GDP numbers. As long as consumers stay away from normal activities, the global GDP levels will continue to contract.
Concluding Thoughts:
From a technical standpoint, at this point, as long as price continues to track within the upward sloping price trend, the bullish trend may continue for a bit longer. Once price breaks below this channel though, look out below.
Our longer-term price modelling systems continue to suggest price is still in a bearish price trend and this move is a bullish price recovery in a bearish price trend. Time will tell if the markets have enough resilience to push higher even further. We believe the data is pointing to a very real potential for a new bearish price trend to emerge.
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