Is Crude Turning?
Dailyfx | May 11, 2015 01:43PM ET
- EUR/USD nearing key median line
- Crude fails at important resistance zone
- NZD/USD testing important retracement
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD has come under modest pressure after failing near 1.1400 during the turn window last week
- Our near-term trend bias will turn lower on a close below 1.1175
- Last week’s closing high arund 1.1340 needs to be overcome to re-instill upside momentum into the rate
- A minor cycle turn window is seen mid-week
- A close below 1.1175 would turn us negative on the euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1.1175 (closing basis).
|
Instrument |
Support 2 |
Support 1 |
Spot |
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Resistance 1 |
Resistance 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
*1.0960 |
1.1075 |
1.1155 |
1.1270 |
*1.1340 |
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD has come under further pressure this morning to deal at its lowest level in almost two months
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Bird while below .7525
- The 61.8% retracement of the March-April range at .7380 is now an important near-term pivot
- A minor turn window is eyed here
- A daily close back over .7525 would turn us positive on the Kiwi
NZD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .7525
|
Instrument |
Support 2 |
Support 1 |
Spot |
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Resistance 1 |
Resistance 2 |
|
NZD/USD |
.7285 |
*.7380 |
.7385 |
.7465 |
*.7525 |
Focus Chart of the Day: CRUDE
Crude rallied nearly 50% from the cyclical turn window we highlighted in March to the high recorded last week. Our analysis of the cycles suggests the commodity reached a point last week where the broader downtrend could try to re-assert itself. The clear failure on Wednesday at median line channel resistance in the 62.00 area (drawn from the 2013 high) followed by a break and weekly close below the upward sloping trendline of the March and mid-April lows is further evidence that a turn lower of some significance is trying to unfold. Last week’s low around 58.00 is now a key pivot with traction below needed to trigger a new round of weakness. A move through 62.55 would invalidate the negative potential cyclicality here and re-focus attention higher.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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