Prepare To Chill Through Netflix Earnings
Dragonfly Capital | Oct 18, 2016 12:40AM ET
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) reports earnings Monday night after the market closes. With this report many investors will be inviting a friend over to watch Netflix and chill. It has been a dynamic stock after earnings, so who can blame them. The stock has moved an average of 12.5% following the last 6 earnings reports, so there will be a lot of action.
Heading into the report the stock has been in a rut. After building a long descending triangle and then breaking out to the upside, there was no explosion higher. No spring higher to the target move, fully extended to 145. Just a flaccid response. A sideways consolidation. Maybe it needs one of those pills to get it going.
The range has tightened since August, and it closed the gap down from April. On close inspection the price has made a couple of higher highs and higher lows since July. Maybe the blood is just starting to get flowing. A move above 107 would get many investors more aggressive, but a move under 93 would see more sellers and under 85 turns most bearish. That range is nearly all within the envelope of the prior moves.
The options open interest this week shows large concentration at 85, 90 and 95 on the put side. On the call side the biggest open interest comes at 100 and 105, then 110 is the largest. And the at-the-money straddle is pricing a 10.50 move by Friday.
If you own this stock already then a collar for protection is a good idea. You might consider an October 99/90 Put Spread for $4.00, and then selling a November 105 Call for $4 to erase the cost. This gives you protection for a price drop from 99 to 90, and still allows a move up to 105 without making any adjustment.
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If you have been waiting for a dip to buy the stock then why not consider an October 98/92.5 1×2 Put Spread for free. This would give participation to the downside below 98 until the price touches 92.5. Below that you would own the stock at 92.5 but with a 87.5 basis. For pure speculation, the best bet looks to be to sell an October 85/110 Strangle for $2.10. Putting those trades on for earnings will allow you to just relax, and watch Netflix stock price and chill.
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