David Tablish | Oct 28, 2013 01:09AM ET
Many times, just before a big move is to occur, you will get a false breakout that can whipsaw you before you know what hit you. It gets everyone moving one way and then out of nowhere the price reverses direction leaving everyone shaking their heads and afraid to make a move. As you were just whipsawed your thinking is, I’m going to wait until I see a better setup.
Does this sound familiar? The problem: the real trend is just starting and you are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a new entry point that gets higher and higher. Whipsaws are just part of the game we play and can be painful if not understood. One year ago we got a good whipsaw on the Gold Bugs Index, HUI, when it broke back above the smaller H&S top, neckline #1, that looked like a real move to the upside when it happened. I got sucked into that one just like everyone else at the time because there was a nice double bottom which formed that created the right side of the much bigger H&S top, neckline #2. The brown shaded area, just above the smaller neckline #1, turned out to be a bull trap just as the big downtrend was beginning. It trapped many bulls that held on far longer than they should have.
Talk about a head fake. Luckily I was able to reverse our long position when the smaller neckline #1 was broken to the downside, breaking even for the trade. That’s when we got short and rode the new downtrend all the way down into the August time frame when the HUI finally crossed above the 50 dma. You can see a couple of small backtests to neckline #1, the last two red arrows on the right side of the chart, that gave us all the clues we needed to be short the precious metals stocks.
Now look down to the bottom right-hand side of the chart that shows the exact same brown shaded area that I’m calling a bear trap. Again, we were short when the blue bearish expanding rising wedge was broken to the downside. When the price action couldn’t move lower than the June bottom a red flag came up for me. As you know I abruptly reversed course again on October 18th and went long.
I know many of you were thinking what is he doing? How could he be a bear one day and a bull the next? After being whipsawed as many times as I have been you begin to understand what is happening and you actually become more emboldened once you figured it out. That is why I wasted little time going from being short to being long. If I’m correct on this one, we’ll have bought very close to the actual bottom which is looking more like a double bottom now.
We still need to trade above 280 or so to confirm the new uptrend, but we have excellent positioning right now with our Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares ETF (NUGT).
Silver is still trading below its neckline but it’s steeper than the HUI and golds. The blue shaded area shows the bear trap that many don’t believe is happening. There is an important clue but a very subtle one on the HUI. Follow the price action when the neckline was broken to the downside, which is the bear trap. Notice how the HUI gapped above the neckline and then the very next day backtested it from above. As you can see, gold had a similar breakout and backtest from the topside of its neckline. This explains why I reversed course when I did. So far it has worked out beautifully:
Note the big breakout gap that occurred at the bottom rail of the blue expanding rising wedge – neckline and the top black rail of the bullish falling wedge, on the far right hand side of the chart. That big gap is one way to get over resistance. Also note the backtest to the blue rail that told me that rail was hot even though it had failed to hold resistance on our current rally. Whenever you see a gap that trades above an important support or resistance rail listen very carefully to what the market is telling you. It's talking to you but you have to understand the language and with enough time and experience you will be able to interpret what she is saying.
That is where we exited our short positions on the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares ETF (DUST), the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Gold ETN (DGLD) and the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Silver ETN (DSLV). The green arrow, green vertical dashed line, shows where we have gone long starting on October 18th.
I think this would qualify as selling or shorting the top and buying the bottom, at least up to this point in time. I would like to focus your attention on the red circle that shows how the HUI interacted with the confluences of resistance rails. You have to look real close, inside the red circle, that shows a big gap right where the green arrow is pointing up. That gap took out the big one plus year top rail of the downtrend channel, the bottom blue rail of the expanding rising wedge, the black dashed support and resistance rail and the 50 dma all at one time. That was a very important development in my opinion.
Note it has already broken out from the blue bearish rising wedge halfway pattern. These types of patterns generally form about halfway through the impulse leg down. By the looks of this chart the next 4 to 6 weeks should be very bad if you are short silver but very good if you’re long silver.
If you recall, this is where we exited our DUST position at the time. When you see a big gap like that, don’t ask questions, just get out of your position as quickly as possible because there is a good possibility that a big move is about to begin. That is another clue as to why I made such an abrupt turnaround from being short the PM complex to going long. Gotta listen to the clues. As you can see, DUST has already broken out of the bear flag and did a backtest last Friday:
As long as nothing gets broken and the price action continues to fall we’ll just bide our time waiting for the price objective—down to the 11.35 area—to be hit. There are no guarantees that this will unfold exactly the way I have it laid it out, but this is the best scenario I see from a Chartology perspective.
By the looks of the chart above we are on the cusp of something interesting that is about to happen in the precious metals sector. Stay tuned for further developments.
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.