Portugal: Towards An Increase In Bank Loans?
BNP Paribas | Jan 18, 2017 04:15AM ET
The annual growth rate of outstanding Portuguese bank loans to the non-financial corporations and to the households of the Euro area is bouncing back since end 2012. In spite of a growth rate remaining in negative territory, a slowdown in the decline is noticeable between October 2012 and November 2016, increasing from -5.6% to -2.1% on an annual basis. This overall trend has been amplified by non-financial corporation loans. The latter is 12.5% more volatile than the growth rate of household loans (standard deviation of 2.5 against 2.8). After years of adjustments, Portuguese growth and inflation forecasts are oriented in a more favourable direction and might allow a pick-up in the growth rate of domestic bank loans.
by Thomas HUMBLOT
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