Political Editorial: Trump Impeachment And US 2020 Election
Candy Matheson | Sep 30, 2019 12:48AM ET
The following is presented without prejudice.
When I step back from and disregard the daily hyperbolic political reports/accusations and quest by US Democrats and the majority of media pundits to investigate and impeach President Trump (which has been going on since before he was sworn in on January 20, 2017), I think that any negative fallout against him from that attempt will be mitigated and cannibalized by at least five major factors:
- at the moment, approximately 60% of Americans are against impeachment,
- there may be grave repercussions for Democrats when the long-awaited and soon-to-be-released DOJ IG's report on FISA abuse under the Obama administration leading up to and post-2016 presidential election is made public,
- there may be even more damaging repercussions for Democrats once the DOJ's review and report on the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation under the Obama administration is eventually made public,
- the reputation of Democrats' current front-runner 2020 presidential candidate, former Obama Vice President Joe Biden , will, no doubt, be negatively impacted as they proceed with an impeachment process over the Ukraine issue, and
- the lurch to the extreme far-left by Democrats and the 2020 Democrat candidates as they embrace and attempt to enforce their Green New Deal doctrine (GND) and socialist agendas will blow up the US National Debt and personal debt of every American to an unsustainable and unattainable level. In short, the US would be bankrupt! This Fox News TV headline caught my attention on Friday...it looks like their GND and socialist policies may not be so attractive for donors.
As of 7:00 pm ET today (September 29), the US National Debt stands at $22,634,538,392,628...by the time you read this, it will be higher. Debt per citizen stands at $68,641 and debt per taxpayer is $183,625.
Who can afford to suddenly pay off that amount, let alone anything outrageously higher, as Democrats are promising to implement with their election agendas?
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At the moment, and as I understand things, the only thing that Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has announced is that a so-called "formal impeachment inquiry" is underway by a variety of Democrat House Chairmen/women and their committees. Exactly who is investigating what and why is unclear. Articles of Impeachment have not yet been drafted and Ms. Pelosi has not called for a formal vote of the entire House to begin impeachment hearings based on those articles.
So, unless and until that is done, these investigations are entirely one-sided, inasmuch as Republican committee members are hamstrung and unable to subpoena their own witnesses in order to conduct thorough, transparent, bona fide, bi-partisan, and fair impeachment hearings.
The longer she drags out her "inquiry" process without calling for a full House vote will highlight Democrat mal-intent and subvert due process of Presidential rights in their rush to overturn the results of the 2016 election...and convey the message to the 63 million supporters who voted for Trump (Hillary's "basket of deplorables") that their vote was not legitimate and didn't matter.
Instead, it looks like a politically-motivated smear campaign is being waged against the President to try and damage his chances of being re-elected in 2020, rather than impeach him under Constitutional law.
Furthermore, the promises made by Democrats (who ran and won in previously-held Republican districts in the 2018 midterm election) to work across the aisle with Republicans and the President on a variety of issues has now been exposed as empty and false political rhetoric.
At the end of the day, people (voters) care about jobs, housing, health, family, national and personal security, the rule of law, liberty, freedom and their rights...not day-to-day over-blown and under-delivered political crises.
At the moment, I don't see any better (and affordable) alternatives being seriously presented to the American people on any of those issues by Democrats than are currently being provided by the Trump administration and Republicans.
In the meantime, the chances that any beneficial legislation (for all Americans) can be passed on a bi-partisan basis in the House and Senate until after November 3, 2020 are nil.
BOTTOM LINE:
How does this affect the US equity markets?
In the long run and based upon the above-noted five mitigating factors, I don't see that any further political impeachment rhetoric will have much of an overall impact on equity markets (barring the revelation of any, as yet unknown, major negative catalyst).
Instead, I've identified several gauges to monitor going forward to the end of 2019 in my last article . If anything, there may be a 60/40 chance that the SPX will, ultimately, move higher from last Friday's close...albeit on choppy, whipsaw trading.
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