Planning Ahead: Monday's Price Action Could Be Pivotal
Michele Schneider | Feb 28, 2021 04:28AM ET
With all but one member of the Economic Modern Family in a bullish phase should we be worried, or does Monday hold the next piece of pivotal price action?
Before we attempt to answer this question, first we should know where each member stands and if anyone sits in a risky place.
First up is Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM).
Friday's low brought him close to major support from the 50-DMA at $210.95. This area coincides with consolidation from mid- to late January.
If the market takes a negative turn Monday, watching support hold in this index is key. However, the Russell 2000 along with the rest of the Family are not in align with the biotech sector (NASDAQ:IBB).
IBB has broken below its 50-day moving average for 2 consecutive days. This confirms IBB has entered a cautionary phase.
Recently, the Transportation sector (NYSE:IYT) dipped below its 50-DMA into a cautionary phase but was able to recover.
At this point, watching for multiple Family members to break their 50-DMAs and confirm will show us if we need to decrease our risk exposure in the market.
In the case of IYT, no other member broke their 50-DMA. IYT then went on to clear all time highs and is now sitting above a support area of 230.
Currently, the closest member to break its 50-DMA is semiconductors (NYSE:SMH). SMH hit a low of 234.91 on Friday with the 50-DMA sitting right at 233.33.
If SMH cannot hold, we should watch for other members to follow.
When it comes to the last two members, Granny retail (NYSE:XRT) and regional banks (NYSE:KRE), both have a decent amount of room between price and their 50-DMAs.
With that said, the current trend favors the Family holding over its major moving averages.
Monday’s price action may be pivotal, but with the Family’s help we know what to look for and what levels need to hold.
- S&P 500 (SPY) Needs to hold over the 50-DMA at 379.80
- Russell 2000 (IWM) Support 215 with more at 211 the 50-DMA
- Dow (DIA) 308.73 the 50-DMA
- NASDAQ (QQQ) Next support 311 the 17-Week moving average
- KRE (Regional Banks) 64.07 the 10-DMA
- SMH (Semiconductors) 233.33 the 50-DMA needs to hold
- IYT (Transportation) Held over the 10-DMA at 234.11
- IBB (Biotechnology) Next support 155
- XRT (Retail) Support 75-73
- Volatility Index (VXX) Still can't get over the 50-DMA at 17
- Junk Bonds (JNK) Confirmed a caution phase
- LQD (iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corp Bond ETF) 129.78 new support
- IYR (Real Estate) Main support 86
- XLU (Utilities) Next support 57.22 the 200-WMA
- GLD (Gold Trust) Needs to find support
- SLV (Silver) We are out
- VBK (Small Cap Growth ETF) 281.38 the 50-DMA
- UGA (US Gas Fund) Nearest support 30.67 the 10-DMA
- USO (US Oil Fund) Resistance 44. 38 support 43-week EMA
- TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 136.61 new support
- USD (Dollar) Cleared the 50-DMA at 90.38. Needs to hold now
- FXI (China) 50-DMA 49.44
- EZA (South Africa) Closest support the 50-DMA at 45.53
- MJ (Alternative Harvest ETF) 21.61 next support
- WEAT (Teucrium Wheat Fund) 6.20 the 50-DMA next support
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