Personal Consumption Expenditures: September 2014 Preview
James Picerno | Oct 31, 2014 12:45AM ET
Tomorrow’s update on US personal consumption spending for September is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The prediction reflects a deceleration in growth relative to August’s 0.5% gain.
Compared with a trio of consensus estimates based on recent surveys of economists, The Capital Spectator’s median forecast for September is above the projections.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind the forecasts that are used to calculate The Capital Spectator’s median prediction:
VAR-1: A “vars” package.
VAR-3: A “vars” package.
ARIMA: An “forecast” package to project future values.
ES: An “forecast” package to project future values.
R-1: A R.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
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