Monday’s report on personal consumption spending for January is projected to show a gain of 0.3% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. That’s slightly below the previously released 0.4% increase for December. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s median forecast for January is slightly higher than a consensus prediction based on a survey of economists.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s projections:
“vars” package.
VAR-3: A “vars” package.
ARIMA: An “forecast” package to project future values.
ES: An “forecast” package to project future values.
R-1: A R.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
