February PCE Preview: Moderate Rebound Expected
James Picerno | Mar 30, 2015 05:57AM ET
US personal consumption spending for February is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month in today’s update (March 30), based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a moderate rebound after January’s 0.2% decline.
Three estimates based on recent surveys of economists also point to moderate gains for consumption in February.
Translating The Capital Spectator’s median monthly forecast into an annual comparison implies that spending will increase in the mid-3% range in tomorrow’s update vs. the year-earlier level.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator’s forecasts that are used to calculate the median estimate:
VAR-1: A “vars” package.
VAR-3: A “vars” package.
ARIMA: An “forecast” package to project future values.
ES: An “forecast” package to project future values.
R-1: A R.
TRI: A model that’s based on combining point forecasts, along with the upper and lower prediction intervals (at the 95% confidence level), via a technique known as “triangle” package.
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