Pending Home Sales Dip In March
Doug Short | Apr 28, 2017 01:28AM ET
This morning the National Association of Realtors released the March data for their Pending Home Sales Index. Here is an excerpt from the latest press release:
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The chart below gives us a snapshot of the index since 2001. The MoM change came in at -0.8%. Investing.com had a forecast of -0.1%.
Over this time frame, the US population has grown by 14.4%. For a better look at the underlying trend, here is an overlay with the nominal index and the population-adjusted variant. The focus is pending home sales growth since 2001.
The index for the most recent month is 12% below its all-time high in 2005. The population-adjusted index is 20% off its 2005 high.
Pending versus Existing Home Sales
The NAR explains that "because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing Home Sales by a month or two." Here is a growth overlay of the two series. The general correlation, as expected, is close. And a close look at the numbers supports the NAR's assessment that their pending sales series is a leading index.
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